Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction: 2 Bets for Week 12, Black Friday

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Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) yells as he is introduced to the fans before an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla.
(Doug Murray/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Nov 24, 2023, 11:35 AM
  • The Dolphins are -10 against the Jets.
  • Miami earned a home win against the Raiders on Sunday.
  • New York received a beatdown from the Bills on the road.

Before the NFL Black Friday contest, I’m set to provide a pair of Jets vs. Dolphins predictions. 

Miami sits atop the AFC East at 7-3 and earned a home win against the Raiders on Sunday. 

The Jets, meanwhile, traveled to Buffalo for a divisional game and received a beatdown from the Bills. That leaves New York at 4-6, good for third in the division. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Friday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest. 

Jets vs. Dolphins Betting Odds

  • Miami Dolphins Moneyline: -500
  • New York Jets Moneyline: +375
  • Game Spread: Miami Dolphins -10 (-110) 
  • Game Total: 41 Points

Jets vs. Dolphins Predictions

New York Jets Spread (+10) vs. Miami Dolphins

I’m all about the gross underdog bets this week at The Roar. 

The Jets are turning to Tim Boyle on Friday. I recognize both Boyle and Zach Wilson are bad options, but that should slightly boost a Jets team 30th in offensive DVOA. 

Plus, it’s difficult to trust the Dolphins as big favorites when they sit 21st in defensive DVOA. 

Despite games against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, they’ve still faced the seventh-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. 

The Jets defense should also do well to hold up, given their prowess against the pass and their ability to create pressure. 

New York sits fourth in pass defense DVOA – including sixth against WR1’s – and rank fifth in PFF pressure grade. 

Lastly, I recognize a lot has changed since Week 2, but this Miami team closed at -1.5 against the Patriots. 

Knowing what we know now, are the Jets really eight-and-a-half points worse? 

I don’t think so. Back the Jets at +7.5 or better. 

Jaylen Waddle Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 

This line strikes me as a bit odd, given Waddle produced only four catches for 55 yards against the Raiders. 

Now he’s facing an objectively better Jets pass defense away from home. 

The Raiders rank 14th in pass defense DVOA, while the Jets are fifth in the category, per ftnfantasy.com. 

In two head-to-head meetings last year, Waddle finished under this number on both occasions. 

It’s also a great sell-high spot on Waddle, who has faced only one top-10 pass defense DVOA side this season, racking up only 44 yards in the process. 

Given the Jets are first in pass defense DVOA against WR2’s – they’re surrendering under 20 yards per game to such players – expect Waddle to struggle on Friday.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.