- The Dolphins are -1 point favorites vs the Jets
- Total (Over/Under): 39 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Miami Dolphins (8-8-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (4-12-0) on Jan. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in East Rutherford, NJ.
The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-115).
The Dolphins vs. Jets Over/Under is 39 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | -1 -115 | 39 -110 | -120 |
| Jets | +1 -105 | 39 -110 | +100 |
Dolphins vs. Jets Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Jets Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Malik Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.61 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jason Sanders has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Tyreek Hill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Braelon Allen has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Breece Hall has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Braelon Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.92 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 4Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.65 Units / 43% ROI)
Jets Best Bets:
- The New York Jets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+3.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Jets have covered the 3Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 7-9 (-3.05 Units / -17.09% ROI).
- Dolphins are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -7.26% ROI
- Dolphins are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
- Dolphins are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI
Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 5-11 (-7.2 Units / -40.22% ROI).
- Jets are 4-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -55.74% ROI
- Jets are 9-6 when betting the Over for +2.4 Units / 13.64% ROI
- Jets are 6-9 when betting the Under for -3.9 Units / -22.16% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets
The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Dolphins were 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .637.
The Dolphins were 4-4 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Jets were winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Jets are winless (0-6) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .375.
The Jets are winless (0-11) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
The Jets are winless (0-10) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .394.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
The Jets have run just 40.0% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run just 43.9% of plays in their territory since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Jets have run successful plays on just 42.4% of pass attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on 29.5% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Jets have averaged just 309 yards from scrimmage per game (10,205 YFS / 33 G) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed an average of just 332.8 yards from scrimmage per game (10,982/33) since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on just 41.4% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on just 38.7% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Dolphins WRs have 8 receiving touchdowns this season — fewest in NFL. The Jets have allowed 17 receiving touchdowns this season — T-fewest in NFL.
Dolphins RBs have 28 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2023 season — 4th-most in NFL. The Jets have allowed 33 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2023 season — T-3rd-most in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have faced a blitz 80 times this season — fewest in NFL.
The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 8% of the time this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Dolphins have started 6 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half since the 2023 season — fewest in NFL.
The Dolphins scored 8 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.
New York Jets Offense: Important Stats
The Jets ran successful plays on 29% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Jets averaged -0.25 epa per play against a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Jets averaged 11.8 drives per TD last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.
The Jets averaged -0.21 epa per play on the road last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.39 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.63 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.03.
The Dolphins defense allowed successful plays on 22% of pass attempts open coverage in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
New York Jets Defense: Important Stats
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts from their own territory last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 35% of plays with a base front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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