- The Texans are -3 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 47 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Miami Dolphins (6-7-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (8-5-0) on Dec. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Houston, TX.
The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Dolphins vs. Texans Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +3 -115 | 47 -110 | +125 |
| Texans | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -150 |
Dolphins vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 62.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 55.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
- Odell Beckham Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 81% ROI)
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jason Sanders has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 63% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nico Collins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 46% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Dolphins
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | +375 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | +500 |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | +800 |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | +800 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 18.5 -110 | 18.5 -120 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 66.5 -115 | 66.5 -115 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 54.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 87.5 -120 | 87.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Stroud (HOU) | 11.5 -110 | 11.5 -120 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 84.5 -115 | 84.5 -115 |
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 21 games (+1.10 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.55 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.05 Units / 60% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 5-8 (-4 Units / -27.3% ROI).
- Dolphins are 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -12.61% ROI
- Dolphins are 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
- Dolphins are 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 5-6 (-1.5 Units / -10.56% ROI).
- Texans are 8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.74% ROI
- Texans are 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -34.03% ROI
- Texans are 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 25.35% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Dolphins were 4-4 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Dolphins are 7-6 (.538) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Texans are 5-2 (.714) when not throwing an interception this season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .591.
The Texans were 4-4 (.500) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Texans were 7-1 (.875) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .631.
The Texans were 10-5 (.667) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .594.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
No Matchup notes for this Game
No Matchup notes for this Game
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins ran successful plays on 36% of rush attempts against a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 8% of the time this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Dolphins have averaged -0.44 epa per play against a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.07.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans have run successful plays on 30% of rush attempts against a base front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.46 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.
The Dolphins defense allowed 11 broken tackles in Week 14 — most in NFL.
The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.50 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Texans defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (242 completions/430 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 9% of plays with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Texans defense have allowed 15 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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