- The Dolphins are a 7-point home favorite against the Patriots.
- The Dolphins have won each of their last nine home games in November.
- My Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction is to use the Dolphins in a teaser.
Seeking a third straight win, the Dolphins welcome the Patriots on Sunday to Hard Rock Stadium.
Miami easily cruised past the Las Vegas Raiders 34-19 in Week 11. That gave the Dolphins a second straight win and moved them into second in the AFC East.
New England, meanwhile, saw a brief positive spell ended in Week 11. As home dogs to the Rams, the Patriots fell 28-22 at Gillette Stadium to fall to 3-8.
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NFL Week 12 Odds: Dolphins vs. Patriots
Nov 24 - 1 pm ESTPatriots at Dolphins
Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on Tua Tagovailoa’s strong record as a big favorite and New England’s weak defense, my Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction is to tease Miami (-1).
While I question if the Dolphins can cover a big number for the second consecutive week, history says they should have little issue winning outright.
For his career, Tagovailoa is 25-8 SU as a market favorite, including 9-1 off a win by 10 or more points.
When he’s listed at -275 or higher on the moneyline, the Alabama product is 14-1 SU, including a perfect 4-0 within the division.
Miami has also excelled offensively since returning Tagovailoa to the lineup.
Dating back to Week 8, Miami ranks third in offensive EPA per play and offensive success rate, per rbsdm.com.
The Dolphins are particularly excelling through the air. Over that same span, Mike McDaniel’s squad is first in dropback EPA per play and third in dropback success rate.
That gives the hosts an extremely favorable matchup against New England. Across the entire campaign, the Patriots rank 29th defensively in dropback EPA per play.
Even more concerning for New England? The Dolphins dominated the most recent meeting without Tagovailoa and with De’Von Achane playing only 11 snaps.
Still, Miami won the game 15-10 with a 5.3-4.1 edge on passing yards per attempt.
If New England can’t shut down the Dolphins passing threat, I question how they keep up offensively in Miami.
As a result, tease the Dolphins down from -7 to -1. For a pairing, I’ll take the 49ers up to +8.5 against the Packers.
Betting Dolphins vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting
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