- The Commanders are -4 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC | UNIV | TELX
The Atlanta Falcons (8-7-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (10-5-0) on Dec. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Landover, MD.
The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The Falcons vs. Commanders Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | +4 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +170 |
| Commanders | -4 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -210 |
Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Falcons vs Commanders Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 64.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Terry McLaurin has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Completions Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 91% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 78% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 away games (+2.15 Units / 16% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+3.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons art 6-8 (-2.9 Units / -17.37% ROI).
- Falcons are 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -2.25% ROI
- Falcons are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Falcons are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / ROI
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 9-5 (+3.55 Units / 21.32% ROI).
- Commanders are 10-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 10.93% ROI
- Commanders are 10-5 when betting the Over for +4.5 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Commanders are 5-10 when betting the Under for -6 Units / -36.36% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Falcons are undefeated (3-0) vs top 10 run offenses this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .360.
The Falcons are 4-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception this season — T-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 6 passes this season — 5th-fewest in NFL.
The Falcons are undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .607.
The Falcons were 2-6 (.250) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Commanders are 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — 6th-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.7 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.
The Commanders were 2-6 (.250) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders were winless (0-8) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.
The Commanders were 3-11 (.214) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders have run successful plays on 55.2% of rush attempts against a stacked front this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 61.5% of rush attempts with a stacked front this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have been successful on 62.8% of plays they have run against a stacked front this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed their opponents to be successful on 69.4% of plays with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 48.7% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 46.0% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Falcons have run successful plays on just 32.7% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 37.0% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Falcons have run successful plays on just 41.2% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 34.1% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — best in NFL.
The Falcons ran 58.7% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Commanders allowed their opponents to run59.2% of plays in their territory last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons have averaged -1.16 epa per play when their QB has scrambled this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.30.
The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged 0.38 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have run 22% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Commanders threw the ball 57% of the time (267 Pass Attempts/465 plays) on 1st down last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Commanders threw for 5 TDs in Week 16 — most in NFL.
The Commanders committed 6 turnovers in Week 16 — most in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 65 carries (10.8 Carries Per TD) in the red zone this season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Falcons defense allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (26/533) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.
The Falcons defense have allowed 0.61 epa per play with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 10% of rush attempts on motion plays since Week 13 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Commanders defense allowed 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
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