- The Falcons are a 2-point home underdog against the Chargers.
- The road team has won each of the Falcons' last eight Week 13 games.
- My Falcons vs. Chargers prediction is for Los Angeles to cover the spread.
Atlanta, off a bye week with consecutive losses, hosts the Chargers in Week 13.
The Falcons suffered a 38-6 blowout loss at Denver before the bye week. That defeat dropped Atlanta to 6-5 after a 20-17 loss at New Orleans in Week 11.
The Chargers saw their four-game winning streak end on MNF against the Ravens in a 30-23 loss. The good news? Los Angeles is 3-1 SU as a road favorite this season.
Bet on Falcons vs. Chargers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 13 Odds: Falcons vs. Chargers
Dec 1 - 1 pm ESTChargers at Falcons
Falcons vs. Chargers Prediction
Based on the Chargers’ strong defensive record and Atlanta’s inconsistent offensive results, my Falcons vs. Chargers prediction is the Chargers Spread (-2, -110).
I’ve debated this game internally all week. To me, the only reason to take the Falcons is that they’re off a bye week and the Chargers have to travel on six days rest.
Besides that, I struggle to make the case for Atlanta under a key number. The Chargers have a better quarterback, better coach and superior defense.
Although it has come against an easy schedule, the Chargers sit 11th in defensive DVOA, including seventh against the pass, per ftnfantasy.com.
Atlanta, meanwhile, ranks 25th in defensive DVOA and 30th in defensive success rate against the run.
They’re also a fraudulent team by win-loss record. Entering this game, Atlanta is a 6-5 team that’s playing more like a 4.7-6.3 record based on expected results.
For Atlanta to win this game, they’ll have to stop the Chargers ground game. This season, Los Angeles is 7-0 SU when they clear 90 rushing yards.
Comparatively, the Chargers are 0-4 SU when they amass fewer than 90 yards on the ground.
Maybe that’s an oversimplification, but it’s worth noting the Falcons have yet to keep an opponent under 90 rushing yards this season.
The Chargers also match a historically profitable betting system in this spot.
Favorites in games 7-17 between -3.5 and -1 are 68% ATS since 2003, assuming three factors:
- The underdog‘s win/loss streak is +1, -1 or -2
- The underdog’s win percentage falls between 37% and 63%
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 54% and 81%
When those teams are playing away from home, they improve to 71% ATS, including 69% between -2.5 and -1.
As a result, it’s the Chargers or nothing for me on Sunday in Atlanta.
Betting Falcons vs. Chargers: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Falcons vs. Chargers public betting data and insights.
