- The Giants are a 5.5-point home underdog against the Buccaneers.
- The Giants have lost five straight against teams that held a losing record.
- My Giants vs. Buccaneers prediction is for Tampa Bay to cover the spread.
The Giants return to Tommy DeVito on Sunday as home underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Both teams received a week of rest in Week 11. Before their bye week, the Giants fell 20-17 in Germany to the Carolina Panthers, their fifth straight defeat.
Not a lot is going right for the Buccaneers, either. Tampa Bay has lost four straight games, but Todd Bowles’ side closed an underdog in all four contests.
Bet on Giants vs. Buccaneers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 12 Odds: Giants vs. Buccaneers
Giants vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Due to the likely return of Mike Evans and the Giants’ weak ATS record at home, my Giants vs. Buccaneers prediction is the Buccaneers Spread (-5.5, -110).
Since market open, this line moved rapidly due to the switch from Daniel Jones to DeVito.
While it’s fun to romanticize DeVito the character, the cold hard truth is that he’s not a very good quarterback. In his last full start, DeVito completed 20 passes for only 177 yards.
Although the Bucs rank 19th in defensive DVOA, consider the fact they’ve played the hardest schedule of opposing offenses.
Sunday’s game at MetLife Stadium marks their easiest offensive opponent of the season and the first game against a bottom-half DVOA opponent since Week 3.
Meanwhile, this Buccaneers offense is humming and should improve with Evans returning.
Tampa Bay ranks eighth in offensive DVOA, having faced the sixth-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Since Week 4, the Bucs rank fourth in EPA per play and offensive success rate.
While I’m concerned about the stability of Tampa’s offensive line against a good Giants front seven, New York is suddenly exploitable on the ground.
Over the last three games, the Giants rank 31st in rush EPA per play and rush success rate.
History also suggests Tampa Bay is the preferred side on Sunday.
Since 2003, conference favorites with 10-16 days between games between -10 and -5.5 that see their spread rise at least a half point are 64% ATS.
When those teams fall between -7 and -5.5: 30-17 ATS, including 16-5 away from home.
Betting Giants vs. Buccaneers: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 86% | 89% | 64% | 80% |
| Giants | 14% | 11% | 36% | 20% |
