How Often Do NFL Underdogs Win in NFL Betting?

min read
Underdog winning percentages in 2022 and over the last 20 years.
(AP Photo/Mike Roemer)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Jan 19, 2023, 3:28 PM

The Detroit Lions’ win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 18 of the 2022 regular season gave them a winning streak of at least three games over their NFC North rival for just the second time in the last 30 years.

And because the Lions were a +200 moneyline underdog (+5 spread), it also gave underdogs one final win in NFL betting during the regular season.

How Often Do NFL Underdogs Win?

NFL underdogs won 34.3% of games during the 2022-23 regular season. 

That’s approximately three percentage points lower than the 2021-22 season (37.5%), reducing the three-year winning percentage (2020-22) to 34.7%.  

Since 2013, NFL underdogs have a winning percentage of 33.8%.

And since 2003, NFL underdogs have a winning percentage of 33.3%. Over those 20 years, dogs have won at least 40% of games only once – 41.8% in 2006-07.

Are NFL Underdogs Profitable?

NFL underdogs weren’t profitable during the 2022-23 regular season. If you bet the moneyline for all 271 underdogs, your ROI would’ve been -8.8%.

It was the fourth-worst ROI for moneyline underdogs in the last 20 years and lowered the ROI to -3.1% since 2003. Only five times in the last 20 years has season-long moneyline underdog betting been profitable.

Spread underdogs, however, were profitable last season, delivering a return of +6.4%, tying 2020 for the best season for underdog spread betting since 2006. Since 2003, spread dogs have an ROI of -0.4%

Related: Biggest NFL Betting Upsets of the Last 10 Years

Live Football Odds at BetMGM

Are you ready to take your online sports betting experience to the next level? Live sports betting is your ticket.

Available for hundreds of college football, NFL, and CFL games each year, live betting allows you to place wagers during the game. From the opening kickoff through the final minutes, you can bet on football odds like the spread, over/under total, and moneyline.

Whether you want to double down on a pregame Big Ten parlay for Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State, hedge against an offseason Super Bowl bet on the Kansas City Chiefs, or place an entirely new football bet, live betting gets you closer to the action each week!

Actor Jamie Foxx on the Welcome Offer BetMGM's banner.
About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM with a focus on college football, NFL, college basketball, and NASCAR. A graduate of the University of Kansas, he previously wrote for Sports Illustrated and HERO Sports.