The Detroit Lions’ win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 18 of the 2022 regular season gave them a winning streak of at least three games over their NFC North rival for just the second time in the last 30 years.
How Often Do NFL Underdogs Win?
NFL underdogs won 34.3% of games during the 2022-23 regular season.
That’s approximately three percentage points lower than the 2021-22 season (37.5%), reducing the three-year winning percentage (2020-22) to 34.7%.
Since 2013, NFL underdogs have a winning percentage of 33.8%.
And since 2003, NFL underdogs have a winning percentage of 33.3%. Over those 20 years, dogs have won at least 40% of games only once – 41.8% in 2006-07.
Are NFL Underdogs Profitable?
NFL underdogs weren’t profitable during the 2022-23 regular season. If you bet the moneyline for all 271 underdogs, your ROI would’ve been -8.8%.
It was the fourth-worst ROI for moneyline underdogs in the last 20 years and lowered the ROI to -3.1% since 2003. Only five times in the last 20 years has season-long moneyline underdog betting been profitable.
Spread underdogs, however, were profitable last season, delivering a return of +6.4%, tying 2020 for the best season for underdog spread betting since 2006. Since 2003, spread dogs have an ROI of -0.4%
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