The Detroit Lions’ win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 18 of the 2022 regular season gave them a winning streak of at least three games over their NFC North rival for just the second time in the last 30 years.
And because the Lions were a +200 moneyline underdog (+5 spread), it also gave underdogs one final win in NFL betting during the regular season.
How Often Do NFL Underdogs Win?
NFL underdogs won 34.3% of games during the 2022-23 regular season.
That’s approximately three percentage points lower than the 2021-22 season (37.5%), reducing the three-year winning percentage (2020-22) to 34.7%.
Since 2013, NFL underdogs have a winning percentage of 33.8%.
And since 2003, NFL underdogs have a winning percentage of 33.3%. Over those 20 years, dogs have won at least 40% of games only once – 41.8% in 2006-07.
Are NFL Underdogs Profitable?
NFL underdogs weren’t profitable during the 2022-23 regular season. If you bet the moneyline for all 271 underdogs, your ROI would’ve been -8.8%.
It was the fourth-worst ROI for moneyline underdogs in the last 20 years and lowered the ROI to -3.1% since 2003. Only five times in the last 20 years has season-long moneyline underdog betting been profitable.
Spread underdogs, however, were profitable last season, delivering a return of +6.4%, tying 2020 for the best season for underdog spread betting since 2006. Since 2003, spread dogs have an ROI of -0.4%
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