- The Bears are -2 point favorites vs the Jaguars
- Total (Over/Under): 45 points
- Watch this game on NFLN
The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4-0) visit Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on the Chicago Bears (3-2-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30am EDT in .
The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2 (-110).
The Jaguars vs. Bears Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Jaguars vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Jaguars | +2 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +110 |
| Bears | -2 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -130 |
Jaguars vs. Bears Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 55.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Jaguars vs Bears Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread with 56.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today
- Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Christian Kirk has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 65% ROI)
- Brian Thomas Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 66% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- D’Andre Swift has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Jaguars
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | +650 |
| Travis Etienne (Jac) | +700 |
| D.J. Moore (Chi) | +800 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Jaguars
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | +115 |
| Travis Etienne (Jac) | +130 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bears vs Jaguars
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 30.5 -120 | 30.5 -110 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 37.5 -110 | 37.5 -120 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) | 55.5 -110 | 55.5 -120 |
| Gabe Davis (JAC) | 33.5 -115 | 33.5 -115 |
| Keenan Allen (CHI) | 46.5 -110 | 46.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bears vs Jaguars
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (JAC) | 43.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -120 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 56.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 |
Jaguars Best Bets:
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored last in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have scored first in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.95 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars art 2-3 (-1.35 Units / -24.32% ROI).
- Jaguars are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -54.89% ROI
- Jaguars are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Jaguars are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 34.23% ROI).
- Bears are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 12.82% ROI
- Bears are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Bears are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Jaguars are winless (0-10) whe trailing at the end of the frist half since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .236.
The Jaguars were undefeated (9-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.
The Jaguars were 6-3 (.667) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .536.
The Jaguars were 2-5 (.286) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bears are winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .226.
The Bears were 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.
The Bears were 1-5 (.167) when allowing 250 or more passing yards last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.
The Bears are 2-9 (.182) on the road since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .452.
Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears
Bears RBs have averaged just 1.2 yards after contact per carry this season — worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed just 1.5 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — T-best in NFL.
Bears RBs have averaged just 1.6 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed just 1.6 yards after contact per carry to RBs since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Bears ran 28.8% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 2nd-best in NFL. The Jaguars allowed their opponent to run 25.0% of plays in the red zone last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Jaguars have averaged just -0.62 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed just -0.74 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on just 39.7% of pass attempts with motion this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed successful plays on just 35.2% of pass attempts against motion this season — best in NFL.
The Jaguars have run just 36.9% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed their opponents to run just 38.7% of plays in their territory this season — 5th-best in NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats
The Jaguars have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — most in NFL.
The Jaguars have run 37% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 11% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The Jaguars have started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bears have averaged -0.56 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.
The Bears ran 42% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Bears ran 50% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats
The Jaguars defense has allowed 24 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
The Jaguars defense has allowed a passer rating of 118.9 with a base rush (156 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 90.2.
The Jaguars defense has allowed a passer rating of 132.5 on motion plays (107 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 95.8.
The Jaguars defense has allowed 3 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2023 season — T-most in NFL.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense have allowed -0.28 epa per play with a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Bears defense averaged a sack every 21.6 pass attempts (647 Pass Attempts/30 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.0.
The Bears defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 76% on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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