Jaguars vs. Bengals Prediction: 3 Bets for Week 13, Monday Night Football

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Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) sets up to throw a pass during the second half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, in Jacksonville, Fla.
(Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Dec 04, 2023, 12:57 PM
  • The Jaguars are -8.5 against the Bengals.
  • Jacksonville earned a 24-21 road win against Houston in Week 12
  • The Bengals have lost two straight games to drop below .500.

Ahead of Week 13’s Monday Night Football contest, I’m here to provide a trio of Jaguars vs. Bengals predictions. 

Following a 1-2 start to the season, Jacksonville has roared back to 8-3, including two straight wins over the Titans and Texans. 

Meanwhile, the Bengals have struggled since Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury. They fell in Baltimore and subsequently lost to the Steelers 16-10 last Sunday. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Monday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest. 

Jaguars vs. Bengals Betting Odds

  • Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline: -400
  • Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline: +310
  • Game Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 
  • Game Total: 38.5 Points

Jaguars vs. Bengals Predictions

Bengals Team Total Under 14.5 Points (-120) 

The Bengals offense sits 14th in offensive DVOA, but a big chunk of that record came with Joe Burrow under center. 

In one start under Jake Browning, Cincinnati managed only 10 points at home. 

Now they travel to face a Jaguars defense that’s arguably better than Pittsburgh. 

The Jaguars rank fifth in defensive DVOA, having faced the hardest schedule of opposing offenses. 

In fact, they’ve faced only two bottom-10 offenses DVOA sides. In those games, they’ve held both teams under this number. 

I’d wager the Bengals are closer to operating as a similar side with Browning. 

As a result, buy low on the Jaguars’ recent defensive performance and take Cincinnati’s team total under. 

Trevor Lawrence Under 0.5 Interception (-105) 

This rates out an outstanding buy-low spot on Lawrence, who hasn’t faced many easy defenses this season. 

In fact, the Jaguars – who sit 17th in offensive DVOA – have faced the 11th-toughest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

On Monday Night Football, he faces a Bengals defense that’s 32nd in PFF’s coverage grades despite sitting 19th in pass defense DVOA. 

Plus, in their last three games – two of which came at home – Cincinnati has forced only one turnover-worthy play, again per PFF. 

This season, Lawrence has faced only three teams that are 17th or worse in PFF’s coverage grades. 

In those contests, he has zero interceptions and only one turnover-worthy play. 

Assuming the Jaguars take a lead, expect less involvement from Lawrence. Accordingly, back him to avoid throwing an interception. 

Jake Browning Under 12.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 

Browning has faced two teams that excel at rushing the quarterback. Simply put, the Jaguars represent an entirely different opponent. 

Browning has cleared this number in two appearances against the Ravens and Steelers. Currently, those teams are 11th and seventh, respectively, in PFF’s pressure grades. 

However, the Jaguars are 28th in that category. They’re also first in rush defense DVOA, suggesting they can limit the Bengals’ ground presence.

After a tough opening stretch facing Anthony Richardson, Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud, they’ve surrendered only 14.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. 

Although that looks concerning, part of it can be attributed to Stroud’s 47-yard performance in Week 12.

Remove that game from the sample, and the average drops to 9.7 yards per game. 

As a result, take the under on Browning. 

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.