- The Lions are -14 point favorites vs the Jaguars
- Total (Over/Under): 47 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (8-1-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Detroit, MI.
The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -14 (-105).
The Jaguars vs. Lions Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Jaguars vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Jaguars | +14 -115 | 47 -110 | +650 |
| Lions | -14 -105 | 47 -110 | -1000 |
Jaguars vs. Lions Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Jaguars vs Lions Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 66.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today
- Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Trevor Lawrence has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- D’Ernest Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jameson Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Jaguars Best Bets:
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars art 6-4 (+1.55 Units / 13.9% ROI).
- Jaguars are 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -48.94% ROI
- Jaguars are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Jaguars are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / ROI
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 7-2 (+4.8 Units / 48.98% ROI).
- Lions are 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 19.18% ROI
- Lions are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.45 Units / -4.52% ROI
- Lions are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.06% ROI
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Jaguars are winless (0-4) on the road this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .490.
The Jaguars are 2-14 (.125) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .409.
The Jaguars are 1-8 (.111) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.
The Jaguars are 2-8 (.200) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Lions are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .250.
The Lions are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .250.
The Lions are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .250.
The Lions are 4-2 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .270.
Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions have run successful plays on 51.2% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed successful plays on 54.4% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Lions have been successful on 52.1% of plays they have ran against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.9% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Lions have run successful plays on 54.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed successful plays on 57.6% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on just 38.4% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on just 36.5% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Jaguars have a third down conversion rate of just 33.0% this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Lions defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 31.4% this season — best in NFL.
The Jaguars were successful on just 23.3% of plays they ran last week — worst in NFL. The Lions allowed their opponents to be successful on just 32.3% of plays last week — 4th-best in NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats
The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 47 of 99 plays (47%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Jaguars targeted TEs 59% of the time (13 Pass Attempts/22 plays) in Week 10 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Jaguars have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Jaguars ran 21% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Lions have run successful plays on 35% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 54%.
The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Lions started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — fewest in NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats
The Jaguars defense has allowed 42 receptions for 20+ yards this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 76% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Jaguars defense have allowed 9 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — 3rd-most in NFL.
The Jaguars defense were flagged 4 times for defensive holding or pass interference last season — fewest in NFL.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
Offenses facing the Lions targeted WRs 70% of the time (239 Pass Attempts/339 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 51.4 in the red zone (43 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.2.
The Lions defense has allowed 16.7 receptions per game (150/9) to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11.6.
Offenses facing the Lions targeted TEs 15% of the time (51 Pass Attempts/339 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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