Jaguars vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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5 NFL Betting Systems for the 2023-24 Season

(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2024, 9:48 AM

The Lions are -14 point favorites vs the Jaguars
Total (Over/Under): 47 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (8-1-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Detroit, MI.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -14 (-105).

The Jaguars vs. Lions Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Jaguars vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Jaguars	+14 -115	47 -110	+650
Lions	-14 -105	47 -110	-1000

Jaguars vs. Lions Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jaguars vs Lions Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 66.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today

Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.45 Units / 48% ROI)
Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.35 Units / 44% ROI)
Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
Trevor Lawrence has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 42% ROI)
D’Ernest Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 53% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 63% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Jameson Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.90 Units / 56% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 48% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.50 Units / 54% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 18% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.20 Units / 34% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars art 6-4 (+1.55 Units / 13.9% ROI).

Jaguars are 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -48.94% ROI
Jaguars are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Jaguars are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 7-2 (+4.8 Units / 48.98% ROI).

Lions are 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 19.18% ROI
Lions are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.45 Units / -4.52% ROI
Lions are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.06% ROI

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Jaguars are winless (0-4) on the road this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .490.

The Jaguars are 2-14 (.125) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .409.

The Jaguars are 1-8 (.111) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.

The Jaguars are 2-8 (.200) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Lions are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .250.

The Lions are 4-2 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .270.

Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions have run successful plays on 51.2% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed successful plays on 54.4% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.

The Lions have been successful on 52.1% of plays they have ran against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.9% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Lions have run successful plays on 54.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed successful plays on 57.6% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on just 38.4% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on just 36.5% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Jaguars have a third down conversion rate of just 33.0% this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Lions defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 31.4% this season — best in NFL.

The Jaguars were successful on just 23.3% of plays they ran last week — worst in NFL. The Lions allowed their opponents to be successful on just 32.3% of plays last week — 4th-best in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 47 of 99 plays (47%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Jaguars targeted TEs 59% of the time (13 Pass Attempts/22 plays) in Week 10 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Jaguars have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Jaguars ran 21% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions have run successful plays on 35% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Lions started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — fewest in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense has allowed 42 receptions for 20+ yards this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 76% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Jaguars defense have allowed 9 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense were flagged 4 times for defensive holding or pass interference last season — fewest in NFL.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

Offenses facing the Lions targeted WRs 70% of the time (239 Pass Attempts/339 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 51.4 in the red zone (43 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.2.

The Lions defense has allowed 16.7 receptions per game (150/9) to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11.6.

Offenses facing the Lions targeted TEs 15% of the time (51 Pass Attempts/339 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

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