- The Jaguars are a 5-point home underdog against the Texans.
- The Texans have won nine straight road games against AFC South opponents.
- My Jaguars vs. Texans prediction focuses on the 1H Spread.
Off a home divisional loss against the Titans, the Texans travel to Jacksonville for a meeting with the Jaguars.
Houston, off a road MNF win, failed to win and cover as 8.5-point favorites against Tennessee in Week 12. Still, the Texans (7-5) hold a two-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South.
Jacksonville’s Week 12 bye came on the heels of a 52-6 defeat to the Lions in Detroit. That’s the fourth straight loss for Jacksonville, which has covered the spread in four of the last five.
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NFL Week 13 Odds: Jaguars vs. Texans
Dec 1 - 1 pm ESTTexans at Jaguars
Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction
Based on C.J. Stroud’s strong record in the first half and Jacksonville’s offense struggles early, my Jaguars vs. Texans prediction is the Texans 1H Spread (-3, -105).
Stroud owns an impressive 20-7 ATS record in the first half since joining the league, including 10-2 ATS this season.
As a market favorite this season, he’s 7-2 ATS in the first half, including a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a 1H favorite off a loss.
On Sunday, Stroud battles a Jaguars team that counts itself amongst the worst 1H ATS sides.
Jacksonville enters this game 4-7 ATS in the opening half, including a non-cover in Houston back in Week 4.
Metrics also support a strong showing for the Texans in this game, largely because of Houston’s defense.
The Texans rank second in first-half EPA per play and defensive success rate, per rbsdm.com.
That gives Houston an extremely favorable defensive matchup over Jacksonville, which ranks 20th and 29th in the corresponding offensive metrics.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s defense counts itself amongst the worst performers in the first half.
Doug Pederson’s side ranks 31st in defensive EPA per play and 25th in defensive success rate across the opening two quarters.
With Houston’s offense slowly returning to full health, I expect this shapes up as a great spot for them.
History supports that notion as well.
Since 2005, road favorites off a loss as favorites by three or more points are 62% ATS in the first half, assuming the spread falls between -3.5 and -0.5.
Just since 2019, those teams improve to 65% ATS, including 17-9 in divisional contests.
Betting Jaguars vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Jaguars vs. Texans public betting data and insights.
