- The Jets are a 4-point home favorite against the Colts.
- The Jets have lost each of their last four Sunday games as favorites.
- My Jets vs. Colts prediction is for the Colts to cover the spread.
Off a blowout defeat in Arizona, the Jets return home for a conference meeting with the Colts.
New York’s small burst of momentum ended in Week 10. The Jets quickly fell behind 14-6 against the Cardinals and subsequently lost 31-6 for a sixth loss in seven games.
Indianapolis experienced a similar fate in Week 10. As home dogs to the Bills, the Colts fell 30-20 in a game that never played as close as the final score indicated.
Bet on Jets vs. Colts and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Jets vs. Colts
Jets vs. Colts Prediction
[Writer’s note: This was written prior to the Colts changing from Joe Flacco to Anthony Richardson. I still like Indianapolis amidst that change, but I would prefer them at +4 vs. +3.5].
Based on New York’s inability to stop the run and the Colts’ strong rushing game, my Jets vs. Colts prediction is the Colts Spread (+3.5, -105).
This line is so confusing to me. Indy closed +4 against the Bills last week at home and now they’re +3.5 against the Jets.
Surely we’re not actually about to say there’s only a half-point gap between the home Jets and road Bills?
Indianapolis holds a massive edge over the Jets defense. The Colts rank ninth in rush offense DVOA, while the Jets rank 27th in the corresponding defensive category, per ftnfantasy.com.
Overall, there’s an argument to be made the Colts are the better team.
Shane Steichen’s team sits 20th in total DVOA, having faced the 11th-hardest strength of schedule. The Jets rank 22nd in total DVOA, having faced the 13th-hardest schedule.
And yet…. there are 3.5 points separating these teams? I’m not buying it.
History also suggests the Colts, a 7-3 ATS team this year with two straight failures against the number, find themselves in a solid buy-low spot.
Since 2003, fading home favorites between -6.5 and -2.5 with a winning percentage under 45% sees bettors go 57% ATS, assuming the favorite is on a one-game winning or losing streak.
When those teams fall between -3.5 and -2.5: 97-72-5 ATS (57.4%).
If the Colts can run the ball and keep New York’s offense off the field, I question how the Jets cover this number.
Buy the Colts so long as they remain available at +3.5 or better.
Jets vs. Colts: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 72% | 62% | 69% | 28% |
| Jets | 28% | 38% | 31% | 72% |
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