Jordan Love Futures Odds: Under for Passing Yards & Touchdowns

I write a lot about traditional NFL futures odds in the offseason, but there’s more than just NFL playoff odds and win totals.

In many cases, BetMGM offers stat-based over/unders for individual players. I like to take a quick gander at these every once in a while.

Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers Trade Leaves Jordan Love In Starting Position

By now, it’s old news that Aaron Rodgers departed the frozen tundra for New York’s bright lights. I’ve written a lot here already, including some broad perspective on the Aaron Rodgers/Jets trade and a short bit on Aaron Rodgers’ stats profile.

While much of the media focus has understandably centered around what the 2023 Jets will look like, there’s a whole other half of the betting coin to consider here.

I’m not particularly interested in the Packers’ odds to win the NFC North – I wrote a bit last week about hedging off the Lions Super Bowl odds hype by considering the divisional play amidst the Lions’ division title drought – but there are still other ways to bet the Jordan Love freshman foray.

Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love As a Top-14 Quarterback?

Right now, the BetMGM online sportsbook has all kinds of NFL futures and odds markets for individual quarterbacks. That includes Jordan Love.

For those interested in yardage, you can bet whether or not Love will have more or less than 3,399.5 passing yards.

For those interested in touchdowns, you can bet whether or not Love will have more or less than 21.5 passing touchdowns.

Both markets are graded purely on regular-season statistics. No preseason. No playoffs.

The interesting thing about both of these numbers is that both numbers set a bar neatly in the NFL’s middle class of quarterbacks. Last season, Derek Carr finished as the No. 14 quarterback by passing yards with 3,522. Daniel Jones, No. 15, had 3,205. 

When it comes to passing touchdowns, Jalen Hurts finished as the No. 14 man under center with 22 total TDs through the air. Andy Dalton, then in New Orleans, finished at No. 15 with 18 TDs. 

There’s always some kind of minor statistical shift when you compare stats from one season to another. But based on last year’s numbers, this year’s Jordan Love betting market seems to be asking a simple question: Do you think Love can be a top-14 quarterback in 2023?

Jordan Love Career Stats

The obvious answer to that question is no. Nearly every quarterback on at least one of the top-14 lists for yards or quarterbacks last year was an established, playoff-caliber quarterback. Most went to the Pro Bowl, played in the postseason, or both.

The idea that Jordan Love – 606 passing yards and three TDs from one career start and just a handful of appearances – could burst onto the scene and suddenly be better than Hurts or Carr feels very unlikely. 

Some decent comps from last season might be Kenny Pickett and Justin Fields. Pickett threw for about 2,400 yards in 13 games. Even if you gave him his season average for the four games he missed, he still checks in at 3,144 yards. That’s under the prop for Love.

Fields has had roughly the same amount of time in Chicago as Love has had in Green Bay. True, Fields has seen far more playing time to grow and develop as a professional, but both were drafted in the last three years and will play in the NFC North this season. Fields managed 2,242 yards and 17 passing touchdowns in 15 games last year.

The case against Love only gets stronger when looking at the Packers’ depth chart. The passing game’s go-to guys for 2023 will be Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, rookie Jayden Reed, and rookie tight end Luke Musgrave. Rodgers himself only had 26 passing touchdowns last season.

Unless you favor the total garbage time approach to stat bets, a la 2017 fantasy Blake Bortles, I just don’t see the upside here. If you’re getting involved, this looks like a clear under to me.