Lions vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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Cowboys player number 4 about to throw an NFL ball game, with a struggle between Cowboys and Jets players in the background.

(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2024, 12:08 PM

The Lions are -3 point favorites vs the Cowboys
Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Detroit Lions (3-1-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (3-2-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Arlington, TX.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Lions vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 52.5 total points for the game.

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Lions vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Lions	-3 -115	52.5 -110	-160
Cowboys	+3 -105	52.5 -110	+135

Lions vs. Cowboys Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Lions vs Cowboys Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 63.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 70% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 39% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.70 Units / 58% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 53% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dak Prescott has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 64% ROI)
Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Dak Prescott has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.95 Units / 61% ROI)
Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Dak Prescott has hit the Longest Rush Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 41% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.20 Units / 35% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.90 Units / 59% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+6.60 Units / 15% ROI)

Cowboys Best Bets:

The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 66% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 11% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 44.19% ROI).

Lions are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -6.19% ROI
Lions are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.35 Units / -52.81% ROI
Lions are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / ROI

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 2-3 (-1.3 Units / -24.07% ROI).

Cowboys are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -6.1% ROI
Cowboys are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Cowboys are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Lions are undefeated (6-0) after a loss since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .484.

The Lions are 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .277.

The Lions were 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Cowboys are 11-4 (.733) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 7th-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 249.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys were 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .570.

The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Cowboys are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .485.

Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have run successful plays on just 16.7% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on just 23.1% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 58.6% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 50.3% of pass attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on 49.1% of pass attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Lions have run successful plays on 44.6% of rush attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed successful plays on 45.4% of rush attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Lions have run successful plays on 47.7% of rush attempts with motion since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed successful plays on 46.5% of rush attempts against motion since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Lions have been successful on 50.9% of plays they have ran with motion this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed their opponents to be successful on 49.1% of plays against motion this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions have run successful plays on 83% of plays against a heavy rush this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Lions have averaged -1.02 epa per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.45.

The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats

The Cowboys scored on 49% of their drives in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Cowboys ran 20% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 83% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Cowboys have scored on 46% of their drives in the 2nd half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

The Lions defense allowed first downs on 50% of rush attempts on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 66%.

The Lions defense has allowed successful plays on 48% of plays with a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Offenses facing the Lions targeted RBs 10% of the time (15 Pass Attempts/158 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Lions defense allowed 89.4 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 121.7.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats

The Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 64% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Cowboys defense allowed just 4.3 yards per dropback (561 yards/131 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Cowboys defense have allowed 0.25 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Cowboys defense has allowed a passer rating of just 59.9 with a light front (151 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 83.8.

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