- The Lions are a 14-point home favorite against the Jaguars.
- The Jaguars have lost each of their last 10 games against NFC North opponents.
- My Lions vs. Jaguars prediction is for the Lions to cover the spread.
The Lions look to extend their winning streak to nine games on Sunday in Detroit against the Jaguars.
Detroit produced a massive come-from-behind win on Sunday night against Houston. Down 23-7 at halftime, the Lions scored 19 unanswered points to capture a 26-23 victory.
The Jaguars lost 12-7 at home to the Vikings despite gaining only 143 yards of total offense. Still, the Jaguars managed to cover for the fourth straight game.
Bet on Lions vs. Jaguars and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Lions vs. Jaguars
2024-12-06T01:15:00ZPackers at Lions
Lions vs. Jaguars Prediction
Based on Jacksonville’s poor offensive metrics behind Mac Jones and Detroit’s strong record at home, my Lions vs. Jaguars prediction is the Lions Spread (-13, -110).
There will come a time to sell the Lions, whose cover streak ended at six in Houston.
But consider this: Jared Goff played easily his worst game of the season…and the Lions still managed to win.
Plus, Jacksonville was lucky to cover the spread as big home dogs against Minnesota.
Jacksonville recorded a meager 143 yards of total offense while Minnesota throttled the Jags defense for 402 yards.
The issue? Sam Darnold repeatedly threw the ball to the wrong team in the Jaguars’ end zone.
If Darnold avoids those turnovers and the Vikings turn field goals into touchdowns, that game could have easily gotten out of hand for Jacksonville.
Plus, Detroit has covered this number in each of its previous two home games, including a cover as 12.5-point favorites vs. Tennessee.
Additionally, Detroit captured a 47-9 win over Dallas in Week 6. Currently, Jacksonville is two spots worse than Dallas in defensive DVOA.
Let’s also consider that this marks Jacksonville’s second road game against a top-six offense by DVOA. In Week 3, they fell 47-10 to the Bills.
History also suggests this is a good spot to lay the points with Detroit.
Since 2003, home favorites priced between -16 and -10.5 against a non-conference opponent are 62% ATS, assuming the team’s game number is four or later.
Across the previous four seasons, those favorites are 14-5-1 ATS, including 6-1 since last season.
Lay the points with Detroit so long as they stay under -14.
Lions vs. Jaguars: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 15% | 5% | 51% | 27% |
| Lions | 85% | 95% | 49% | 73% |
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