- The Lions are -3.5 against the Rams in Week 1.
- Detroit won outright against the Rams in the playoffs but failed to cover.
- I predict David Montgomery will clear his rushing yards prop against Los Angeles.
To close out the Sunday Week 1 slate, Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit to face the Lions on Sunday Night Football.
This marks the second meeting between these teams this calendar year. In January, they played in the wild card round with Detroit earning a 24-23 victory at home.
Entering Sunday’s game, the Lions have won four straight and eight of their last nine at Ford Field.
Let’s take a look at the NFL Betting Lines for the Week 1 game along with my prediction.
Lions vs. Rams Odds, SNF
- Detroit Lions Moneyline: -175
- Los Angeles Rams Moneyline: +145
- Game Spread: Lions -3.5 (-105)
- Game Over/Under: 51 Points
Lions vs. Rams Prediction: David Montgomery Rushing Yards
My prediction for Lions vs. Rams is David Montgomery Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115).
I’m bullish on the Rams secondary, but I simultaneously think their run defense could take a step back without Aaron Donald.
Last year, Los Angeles saw three players from their front seven post rush defensive grades of 71 or better. Two of those players — Donald and Ernest Jones — are gone.
In 2022, Los Angeles struggled immensely against top running backs when Donald didn’t play.
Of the six games Donald missed in 2022, four saw opponents’ lead rushers notch at least 10 attempts.
In those games, the Rams allowed 106.3 rushing yards per game, with all four backs clearing 90 yards.
Now that unit faces a Lions team that ranked second in PFF’s run-blocking grades in 2023. Even with Donald in the lineup, Montgomery notched 57 rushing yards in their playoff meeting.
Irrespective of opponent, Montgomery cleared this number in 12 of 14 regular season games and 14 of 17 games if you include the postseason.
For those reasons, take the over on Montgomery’s yardage prop on Sunday night.
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