NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Week 3

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Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass against the Tennessee Titans during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, in Nashville, Tenn.
(George Walker IV/AP Photo)
BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Sep 22, 2023, 3:02 PM
  • Will the Lions bounce back at home against the Falcons?
  • The case for selling the Dolphins in their home opener.
  • One writer’s best bet for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings.

NFL bettors received a taste of action with 49ers vs. Giants on Thursday night. Now, the 13-game Sunday entree has arrived. 

Countless NFL odds markets exist across these matchups, headlined by Steelers vs. Raiders, Eagles vs. Buccaneers and Rams vs. Bengals. 

But which markets stand out to our Roar staff? Let’s dive into our best bets for Sunday’s NFL action.

NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

Detroit Lions Spread (-3, -120) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Ryan Hannable: I faded the Lions a week ago against the Seahawks, but I’m picking them this week at home against the Falcons. 

Atlanta is 2-0 overall (1-1 ATS), but to me they aren’t going to be as good as many have hyped them to be this season. This will be their first road game of the year after losing six straight road games to end last season. 

Detroit is in a good spot at home to bounce back following a tough loss in Week 2.

Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline (-105)

Chase Kiddy: This Los Angeles/Minnesota game has been most culturally relevant this week for easy bets on the over and jokes about both teams losing. 

At 0-4 combined, neither team is where they want to be, and most bettors are struggling to see past both teams’ penchant for bad defense and blown games.

I actually think that’s a missed opportunity. The Chargers are the more talented team overall, and I’ll take Justin Herbert over Kirk Cousins any day. 

Even without Austin Ekeler, the ground game should flourish against Minnesota’s lousy run defense, which currently sits No. 31 in PFF’s rankings. 

The Chargers can feel an unpredictable team in betting markets, but they’re quite good against the spread away from home. 

Los Angeles finished 7-2 ATS in nine 2022 road games and 26-13-2 ATS in road contests since the start of 2018.

My suspicion is that by the time we get to Monday, the Chargers are going to feel like an obvious pick that everyone missed because they were too busy making hacky jokes. 

Tennessee Titans Spread (+3.5, -115) at Cleveland Browns

Nick Hennion: This game fits a number of historically profitable betting systems. 

As an underdog, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is 72% ATS when he’s getting three or more points. Plus, underdogs in games with totals less than or equal to 42 points – the total for this game is 39.5 – are 58% ATS since the 2018-19 season. 

I don’t expect the Titans can exploit a strong Browns defense, but their effectiveness at stopping the run can keep them in the game. 

Back Tennessee at +3 or better. 

Denver Broncos Spread (+6.5) at Miami Dolphins

Nick Hennion: Both Sean Payton and Russell Wilson are historically outstanding when they’re underdogs. 

Payton is 61.3% ATS in that position while Wilson is a whopping 68.4% ATS as a dog, admittedly on a much smaller sample. 

Public bettors are falling in love with the Dolphins as they’ve received 76% of all bets this weekend. However, the line has moved from +7 at open to +6.5. That tells me there’s sharp action backing the Broncos. 

Denver’s new offense can keep up with Miami, who could operate without Jaylen Waddle on Sunday. 

As a result, this is too many points for Miami to lay. Although they probably win the game, I’ll back the Broncos to cover at +6 or better. 

Packers-Saints Total Under 42.5 Points (-110) 

Nick Hennion: This Saints defense is no joke as they rank fourth in defensive DVOA entering this game. 

For all of last season, New Orleans finished ninth in that category, surrendering only 20 points per game. 

Green Bay’s offensive output week-over-week should drop as a function of facing a better defense, but I also don’t trust this Saints offense. 

Playing on a short week, they’ll face a Packers team that allowed only 20 points per game at Lambeau Field last season. 

In a game where both teams likely rely on the run, back a low-scoring contest.

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.