NFL Best Bets: My 3 Top Plays For Week 3

Another Sunday is almost here, so it’s time to bet on NFL again.

As I do at the end of every week during the fall, here are three of my favorite NFL betting lines from the upcoming Week 3 games. Tail or fade at your leisure.

NFL Best Bets: Week 3 NFL Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my three best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone.

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit. 

One rule to keep in mind: Any time there’s an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I’m almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play. 

We were about even last week. The official plays went 1-2, but we hit the parlay at the end. 

Chiefs at Colts (+5.5)

As an advantage bettor, I always talk about putting strong economic principles into practice. Buy low. Sell high. Don’t overpay. Go against the market. 

Nearly every fundamental gambling truth says that the Chiefs are square as hell this week and that the Colts are a prime buy-low candidate as a winless home dog.

I don’t care. I’m betting on the Chiefs.

In the aggregate, teams like the Colts do provide long-term ROI. Intellectually, I understand that. One of the fundamentals that underpin the sharp principle is that the public overreacts to previous wins or losses – especially early in the season, where data points are limited. 

“Across 17 games, the Colts aren’t 24 points worse than the Jags!” That’s probably true.

Assuming regression to the mean is essential to being a sharp bettor. Understanding the impact of returning players like Michael Pittman and Shaq Leonard is crucial.

I can believe all of those things, yet also think that even the best version of these 2022 Indianapolis Colts is not in the same league as Kansas City.

There is a coming time to fade the Chiefs. I’m just not sure it’s with the Colts, catching less than a touchdown.

Play: Chiefs -5.5

Bengals at Jets (+6)

The Bengals are the more desperate team, which is why many professional bettors are going back for their money with Cincinnati this week. The line has continued to move throughout the week, and it could go to Bengals -7 before kickoff.

I came in on the Bengals at -5, and I would still recommend a bet here at Bengals -6, but it’s got nothing to do with desperation. 

Look at who the Bengals faced during the first two weeks of the season: Pittsburgh and Dallas.

That means Cincinnati and its crappy offensive line opened the season against two of the best three defensive players in the NFL. 

The Jets do not have anything like Micah Parsons or TJ Watt, so I’m skeptical of their ability to wreck Cincinnati’s offense. 

It also can’t hurt to go against the Jets after last week’s fluky win in Cleveland. 

This was my pick for our staff’s NFL Best Bets for Week 3.

Play: Bengals -6

Packers at Buccaneers (-1) 

I lean toward the Bucs here as a short home favorite, as we’ve seen what happens when the Packers have to play outdoors in Florida when the weather is nice. The outcome generally isn’t good.

That said, the best option in this game is the under. 

Green Bay lost its key offensive personnel during the offseason, while Tampa’s offense has been depleted by injuries between the start of camp and now. This game will be dominated by defense.

I think this total would be lower if these teams had classic defensive reputations. We saw where the total landed for the Steelers/Browns game on Thursday night.

Instead, these teams are headed by Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady at quarterback, so this total might be a little inflated beyond what it should be. I expect a deeply unwatchable game with a lot of punting. First team to 15 wins. 

Play: Green Bay/Tampa Bay Under 42

NFL Parlay for Week 3

If you don’t want to lay that many points with the Bengals, but you still want to get involved with Cincinnati, then how about a little AFC North road favorite two-teamer?

• Bengals -250
• Ravens -150

This two-team parlay adds up to a price of +133.

NFL Week 3 Predictions

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