NFL Rookie of the Year Odds: Chalky Picks for the Awards Market

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Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young arrives at the NFL football team's training camp on Wednesday, July 26, 2023, in Spartanburg, S.C.
(AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy Aug 29, 2023, 11:01 AM
  • NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is often won by quarterbacks like Bryce Young.
  • OROY betting odds actually favor Falcons RB Bijan Robinson.
  • DROY betting favorites include Will Anderson Jr., Jalen Carter, and Tyree Wilson.

Every year, the NFL highlights two rookies as premiere freshman playmakers. They are the offensive and defensive rookies of the year. 

Naturally, the BetMGM online sportsbook has a betting market for anyone out there feeling particularly predictive. 

Here are the odds for both markets, as well as some early thoughts on players I like to compete for both awards. 

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

PlayerTeam/PositionCurrent Odds
Bijan RobinsonFalcons RB+250
Bryce YoungPanthers QB+450
Anthony RichardsonColts QB+700
Jahmyr GibbsLions RB+750
C.J. StroudTexans QB+850
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawks WR+1200
Jordan AddisonVikings WR+1600
Zay FlowersRavens WR+2000
Quentin JohnstonChargers WR+2000
Jaylin HyattGiants WR+2500

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction

Take a moment to consider how OROY typically plays out. The players that have the “best” shot at the award, so to speak, are quarterbacks who enter the league and immediately make a bad team competitive. 

If no such quarterbacks exist in a given year, then the award often goes to a skill player with impressive stats. Since the OROY award was created in 1967, it’s only ever been given to a quarterback, running back/fullback, or wide receiver.

This kind of meta-commentary heavily suggests that Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and C.J. Stroud should all be very strongly considered for the award. All three play in winnable divisions and could nab the award if their team remains competitive for the division title into December. 

Because the NFC South seems more up for grabs, and because Young is likely the most NFL-ready of the three players, I’d personally prefer Young at +450 to Richardson at +700 or Stroud at +850. (In the case of Stroud, we’re not even totally sure he’ll have the job for Week 1.)

Don’t forget about +250 favorite Bijan Robinson, though. In my Bijan Robinson odds analysis, I mentioned how quietly impressive the Atlanta offensive line was last year. Robinson will immediately be one of the most productive running backs in the NFL.

Because Young and Robinson happen to play in the same division, there’s a reasonably high chance that the Panthers and Falcons’ head-to-head results will ultimately determine the winner of the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

PlayerTeam/PositionOdds
Will Anderson Jr.Texans DE+400
Jalen CarterEagles DT+600
Tyree WilsonRaiders DE+1000
Devon WitherspoonSeahawks CB+1000
Christian GonzalezPatriots CB+1400
Lukas Van NessPackers LB+1400
Jack CampbellLions LB+1400
Emmanuel Forbes Jr.Commanders CB+1600

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Prediction

The DROY award is a little harder to predict, but the history does read like a preview of future all-Pros. Recent winners include Sauce Gardner, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, and Shaq Leonard. 

However, there’s very little positional narrowing that can be done for the award. Consider the last six winners, which have featured two defensive linemen, two linebackers, and two corners. 

If you’re betting DROY, you’ve pretty much got to roll with your gut on which player has the best blend of raw talent, scheme fit, and opportunity to impress.

For me, that’s Texans pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. (+400), who is entering a division with two teams that ranked among the bottom 10 teams in the NFL last season for pass protection. (Jacksonville ranked 10th, but it will also give Anderson plenty of chances, as they ranked ninth in the league in total pass attempts last year.)

It’s a chalky pick to be sure, but against the AFC South, he should feast.

NFL Rookie of the Year History

YearOROY (Team/Position)DPOY (Team/Position)
2022Garrett Wilson (Jets WR)Sauce Gardner (Jets CB)
2021Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals WR)Micah Parsons (Cowboys LB)
2020Justin Herbert (Chargers QB)Chase Young (Washington DE)
2019Kyler Murray (Cardinals QB)Nick Bosa (49ers DE)
2018Saquon Barkley (Giants RB)Shaq Leonard (Colts LB)
2017Alvin Kamara (Saints RB)Marshon Lattimore (Saints CB)
2016Dak Prescott (Cowboys QB)Joey Bosa (Chargers DE)
2015Todd Gurley (Rams RB)Marcus Peters (Chiefs CB)
2014Odell Beckham Jr. (Giants WR)Aaron Donald (Rams DT)
2013Eddie Lacy (Packers RB)Sheldon Richardson (Jets DT)
2012Robert Griffin III (Redskins QB)Luke Kuechly (Panthers LB)
2011Cam Newton (Panthers QB)Von Miller (Broncos LB)
2010Sam Bradford (Rams QB)Ndamukong Suh (Lions DT)
2009Percy Harvin (Vikings WR)Brian Cushing (Texans LB)
2008Matt Ryan (Falcons QB)Jerod Mayo (Patriots LB)
2007Adrian Peterson (Vikings RB)Patrick Willis (49ers LB)
2006Vince Young (Titans QB)DeMeco Ryans (Texans LB)
2005Cadillac Williams (Buccaneers RB)Shawne Merriman (Chargers LB)
2004Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers QB)Jonathan Vilma (Jets LB)
2003Anquan Boldin (Cardinals WR)Terrell Suggs (Ravens LB)
2002Clinton Portis (Broncos RB)Julius Peppers (Panthers DE)
2001Anthony Thomas (Bears RB)Kendrell Bell (Steelers LB)
2000Mike Anderson (Broncos RB)Brian Urlacher (Bears LB)

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.