NFL Best Bets: My 3 Top Plays For Week 16

Another Sunday is almost here, so it’s time to bet on NFL again.

As I do at the end of every week during the fall, I’m sharing three of my favorite NFL betting lines from the upcoming Week 16 games. Tail or fade at your leisure.

NFL Best Bets: Week 16 NFL Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my three best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone.

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit. 

One rule to keep in mind: Any time there’s an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I’m almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play. 

Bengals at Patriots (+3.5)

Regular readers know that I bet as though sports are an extension of the stock market. I buy low and I sell high.

The case for buying low on the Patriots in this spot is pretty clear. This game will be played six days after one of the most epic walk-off losses in the history of the NFL.

The case for Cincinnati is a little more nuanced. The Bengals are playing great football, but injuries are stacking up. That was clear in the first half of last week’s game in Tampa, where the Bengals were absolutely dead in the water. An avalanche of second-half turnovers quickly reversed their fortunes. 

I wonder if a similar first half is possible here, with Cincinnati heading on the road for the second time in seven days. I expect New England to play inspired football, in the wake of an embarrassing loss, which should keep this game competitive. 

Most importantly, there’s the number itself. 

This number has come down from Bengals -4 to Bengals -3.5, to Bengals -3 at nearly every other online sportsbook. However, the BetMGM online sportsbook is offering a great opportunity here for Patriots bettors, as the line remains at Patriots +3.5… for now. I’d run over and get it while you still can.

Play: Patriots +3.5

Packers at Dolphins (-4)

The Packers were 1-7 straight up in October and November. Remember that? Remember when they were bad for almost the entire season up until now?

Well, now that the Packers have earned two consecutive wins over the Bears and Rams – a pair of last-place teams with seven combined wins – everyone thinks the Packers are good again. As a result, they’re a trendy upset pick this weekend in Miami, with a majority of tickets backing the Packers plus the points.

I don’t buy it, and I think this is actually a great time to buy low on the Dolphins. Miami played three straight road games against playoff-caliber opponents: San Francisco, Buffalo and the LA Chargers. Bettors are down on the Dolphins because they went 0-3 on the road trip, but frankly, most teams would go 0-3 against that schedule.

Miami needs a win to right the ship and feel good about their playoff position. Green Bay is just hoping Christian Watson can keep catching 80-yard touchdown bombs to sustain its sudden offensive resurgence. In this spot, I like the former to triumph over the latter. 

Play: Dolphins -4

Buccaneers at Cardinals (+7.5)

Arizona is a fade target this weekend because third-string quarterback Trace McSorley is making his first career start for the Cardinals.

But let’s ask a more fundamental question: Why on Earth should Tampa be expected to lay this kind of margin?

Since the start of November, Tampa is 1-4-1 ATS. The highest closing point spread that it’s covered all season is -2.5.

Forget about Arizona’s lousy home-field advantage and its lowly quarterback. Is there a single reason Tampa should be trusted to win by multiple scores on the road when it hasn’t done that since Week 2?

The Cardinals at any good number here is sharp; the Cardinals on the far side of seven is a no-brainer.Play: Cardinals +7.5

NFL Parlay for Week 16

Last week’s favorites parlay was an easy winner, and I’m sticking close to that formula again this week.

• Bills -400
• 49ers -350
• Chiefs -500

That’s a three-teamer available right now at BetMGM for -108.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Want to check out the full NFL Week 16 podcast? Don’t forget to subscribe to The Lion’s Edge for intelligent, weekly insights into trends and betting tips across the online sports betting world. It’s available on iTunes, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

You can also listen to it in the web player below.