- I predict the Denver Broncos are the best six-point teaser option in Week 6.
- I predict itโs worthwhile fading two AFC North teams via a six-point tease.
- My case for predicting the Ravens cover a teaser against the Commanders.
Amongst the countless Week 6 NFL odds markets at the BetMGM online sportsbook, one option for bettors is a teaser.ย
Largely popular amongst recreational bettors, a teaser allows bettors to move multiple lines in their favor with varying payouts depending on the total legs.ย
NFL Teaser Picks: Best Week 6 Teaser Predictions
Best NFL Week 6 Teaser Leg No. 1: Broncos +9 vs. Chargers
In what I expect to be a low-scoring game based on my NFL Week 6 predictions, I predict the Broncos (+9) cover a six-point teaser.ย
Both of the Chargersโs wins have come by double digits. However, the Raiders and Panthers arenโt on the level of Denverโs defense.ย
Even with the Chargers playing on extended rest, Denver has stayed within this number in all five games this season.ย
Plus, Sean Payton is 52-35-2 ATS as an underdog and 70-19 (79%) against a six-point teaser in those positions.ย
Best NFL Week 6 Teaser Leg No. 2: Giants +9.5 vs. Bengals
Based on Cincinnatiโs lackluster defense and New Yorkโs decent coverage ratings, I predict the Giants cover a six-point teaser (+9.5).ย
Even if the Giants donโt cover the spread, the backdoor will always be open, in my opinion.ย
Cincinnati is 30th in defensive EPA per play and 31st in defensive success rate, per rbsdm.com. Plus, New York is quietly 13th in dropback EPA per play allowed in the last two weeks.ย
That should allow for success against a Bengals team thatโs seventh in pass play percentage.ย
Plus, the Giants rank 11th and 15th in passing EPA per play and passing success rate over the last two weeks.ย
Giants head coach Brian Daboll is also 24-9 (73%) against a six-point teaser as an underdog, including 21-6 (78%) at +3 or higher.ย
Best NFL Week 6 Teaser Leg No. 3: Titans +7 vs. Colts
Due to Tennesseeโs extended rest period and Indianapolisโ myriad injuries, I predict the Titans will cover a six-point teaser (+7).ย
Placing trust in Will Levis is scary. However, he gets a Colts defense potentially with no JuJu Brents and Kenny Moore II on Sunday.ย
That puts Indy, which is already 21st in dropback EPA per play allowed, in trouble.ย
But my confidence in Tennessee rests with their defense.ย
The Titans are fifth in defensive EPA per play and first in defensive success rate. Against the pass, they sit eighth and first in EPA per play and success rate.ย
Add in the Coltsโ injuries on offense to Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, and I question how they score enough points to win by multiple scores.ย
Best NFL Week 6 Teaser Leg No. 4: Raiders +9 vs. Steelers
Due to Mike Tomlinโs struggles as a favorite, I predict the Raiders cover a six-point teaser (+9) against the Steelers.ย
To me, the Steelers have yet to deliver a convincing performance away from home.ย
They looked shaky against the Falcons in Week 1, allowed Denver to stay within a score in Week 2, then fell to the Colts in Week 4.ย
Even more concerning is Tomlin’s struggles when favored. For his career, he is 88-98-2 ATS as a market favorite, including 33-40-1 as a road favorite.ย
Fading Tomlin via a six-point tease in those road spots sees bettors go 56-15 (79%), including 47-12 (80%) when heโs -3 or higher.ย
The chief concern here is youโre fading Tomlin via a Raiders team that has lost two of their last three by double digits. However, at home, off a bad road loss, is probably as good a buy spot as possible.ย
Best NFL Week 6 Teaser Leg No. 5: Ravens -0.5 vs. Commanders
Because of Washingtonโs inability to defend the run, I predict the Ravens cover a six-point teaser (-0.5) in Week 6.ย
Thereโs no denying both Baltimore and Washington possess brilliant offenses. However, the edge on defense has to go to Baltimore.ย
Baltimore is 22nd in EPA per play, while Washington is 27th. The Ravens own a somewhat redeeming quality: theyโre third in both rush EPA per play and success rate.ย
Plus, Washington has yet to show they can stop the run. The Commanders rank 27th in both rush EPA per play and rush success rate allowed.ย
In Week 6, they face a Ravens team second and fourth in the corresponding offensive metrics.ย
That should prove the difference in this game. If Washington canโt stop the run and Baltimore plays with a lead, the Ravens should earn its fourth straight win.
Whatโs a Teaser Bet & How Do They Work?ย
In a teaser bet, bettors select two or more markets in which theyโd like to adjust the line. The most common adjustment is six points, though BetMGM allows players to move lines by any amount between six and 14 points.ย
However, bettors pay a premium to move the line through key numbers. In the NFL, these numbers are three, six, seven, 10, 14 and 17.ย
In a two-team, six-point teaser, bettors have to lay -130. In a three-team, six-point teaser, the price rises to +160.ย
Bettors can include as many legs as they want. But remember, all legs have to cash for the whole bet to win, making teasers with more teams inherently riskier.ย
With teasers, bettors should remember two things.ย
First, always tease through the key numbers. Second, never tease through zero.ย
My other recommendation is to focus on home teams. Some handicappers will utilize road teams in a teaser, but Iโve found visitors experience more volatile results.ย
Bettors should learn the BetMGM house rules associated with teasers pushing. If a leg pushes in a teaser with three or more legs, the leg is removed, and the odds are recalculated.ย
In a two-team teaser, if one leg pushes, the entire bet pushes and bettors are refunded their stake.
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