- This Week 2 betting system is 59.7% ATS.
- Based on current lines, six teams fit criteria for Week 2.
- Read on for system criteria and matchups.
NFL Week 2 is all about perception.
Was the team that won by 20+ points as good as bettors perceive? Is the team that lost by that same margin as bad as that result?
Eliminate that notion and bettors have an opportunity to buy low on a number of squads. Here, I’ll break down a historically profitable system stemming from this belief.
NFL odds are reflective at the time of writing.
NFL Betting Predictions: Week 2 Overreactions System
Before I go any further, a quick disclaimer: this system only applies to Week 2.
Although it’s generally a good idea to buy low on teams throughout the season, it’s especially profitable in Week 2.
For this system – Week 2 overreactions – I’m looking for drastic changes in perception based on Week 1 results.
Specifically, I’m looking to fade Week 2 favorites – especially away from home – that closed as an underdog in Week 1.
Dating back to the 2005-06 season, there are 125 instances in Week 2 when a team was a Week 1 underdog and a Week 2 favorite.
Betting against all these teams saw bettors go 71-48-6 ATS, including 21-10-1 since the 2018-19 season.
That’s a 59.6% hit rate for a 16.6% return on investment.
In Week 2 of the 2023-24 NFL season, there are six sides who fit these criteria. Here are the markets players should back to fade these sides:
- Seattle Seahawks Spread (+6) at Detroit Lions
- Atlanta Falcons Spread (+1) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Chicago Bears Spread (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Arizona Cardinals Spread (+4.5) vs. New York Giants
- New England Patriots Spread (+2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
- Pittsburgh Steelers Spread (+1.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
NFL Same Game Parlays
Parlays are a great way to take your NFL betting to the next level. And at the online sportsbook, you can build parlays with a single game.
Same Game Parlays allow bettors to add multiple bets within the same game to increase the excitement and potential payout. You can also combine Same Game Game Parlays with Same Game Parlay Plus (SGP+).
Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome bonus — to start betting. And don’t forget to check updated sportsbook bonuses and promos each day of the year.
