NFL Predictions: 6 Games for Profitable Week 2 Betting System

NFL Week 2 is all about perception. 

Was the team that won by 20+ points as good as bettors perceive? Is the team that lost by that same margin as bad as that result? 

Eliminate that notion and bettors have an opportunity to buy low on a number of squads. Here, I’ll break down a historically profitable system stemming from this belief. 

NFL odds are reflective at the time of writing. 

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 2 Overreactions System

Before I go any further, a quick disclaimer: this system only applies to Week 2. 

Although it’s generally a good idea to buy low on teams throughout the season, it’s especially profitable in Week 2. 

For this system – Week 2 overreactions – I’m looking for drastic changes in perception based on Week 1 results. 

Specifically, I’m looking to fade Week 2 favorites – especially away from home – that closed as an underdog in Week 1. 

Dating back to the 2005-06 season, there are 125 instances in Week 2 when a team was a Week 1 underdog and a Week 2 favorite. 

Betting against all these teams saw bettors go 71-48-6 ATS, including 21-10-1 since the 2018-19 season. 

That’s a 59.6% hit rate for a 16.6% return on investment. 

In Week 2 of the 2023-24 NFL season, there are six sides who fit these criteria. Here are the markets players should back to fade these sides: 

• Seattle Seahawks Spread (+6) at Detroit Lions
• Atlanta Falcons Spread (+1) vs. Green Bay Packers
• Chicago Bears Spread (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Arizona Cardinals Spread (+4.5) vs. New York Giants
• New England Patriots Spread (+2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
• Pittsburgh Steelers Spread (+1.5) vs. Cleveland Browns