- I predict the Denver Broncos are a strong buy-low candidate in 2025.
- The case for buying the Dallas Cowboys off a missed playoff appearance.
- Why the Detroit Lions’ road schedule renders them a sell-high candidate this year.
Under three weeks removed from the start of free agency, NFL teams are beginning to iron out their rosters for 2025.
By taking roster updates and applying them to a team’s set of 2025 opponents, bettors can start to form betting opportunities ahead of 2025.
Below, I’ve outlined two buy candidates along with two sell candidates based on NFL odds.
NFL Betting: Buy & Sell Candidates in 2025
Buy Candidate: Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys endured a brutal campaign in 2024.
Dak Prescott started only seven games for a team that saw a three-year playoff streak end. Defensively, Dallas went from possessing a top-10 unit in 2023 to a bottom-10 unit in 2024.
Dallas constructed that playoff run with a strong defense. From 2021-2023, they never finished outside the top 10 in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Last year, the defensive falloff has to be attributed to the schedule: Dallas played the league’s seventh-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
This year, the Cowboys play only three games against teams that ranked 10th or better in offensive DVOA last year against a top-half strength of schedule.
Two of those contests come at home.
Irrespective of opponent strength, the Cowboys play 11 games against teams 16th or better in offensive DVOA from 2024. Seven of those 11 come at home.
The Cowboys retained a strong defense by re-signing Osa Odighizuwa to a four-year extension.
Kenneth Murray and Dante Fowler Jr. also create a strong front seven for Dallas.
My opinion of this team is that there’s not as big of a gap between Dallas and Washington as the market believes.
If new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer returns this defense to 2023 levels, Dallas could be primed for a playoff run and challenge for the division (+800).
Buy Candidate: Denver Broncos
Think of the Broncos as a miniature Philadelphia Eagles.
While Denver lacks Philadelphia’s weapons at the skill positions, they’ve built success from the trenches.
The Broncos led the NFL in both pass-block win rate and run-block win rate last year, per ESPN Analytics.
They simultaneously ranked second and eighth, respectively, in the corresponding defensive metrics.
Denver succeeded last year on the heels of their defense, which finished fourth in defensive DVOA.
They’ve strengthened this offseason by adding Cody Barton, Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw.
On offense, they sneakily added Evan Engram at tight end. That gives Bo Nix another weapon as he tries to produce a strong sophomore campaign.
Additionally, Denver enters next season as a prime positive regression candidate. The Broncos finished 1-6 in games decided by seven points or less last year.
Three of those six losses came in the division, including two against the Chargers.
As a result, the market currently underestimates Denver. While a Super Bowl Win (+4000) might prove a lift, an AFC West Title (+425) feels plausible.
Sell Candidate: Detroit Lions
The story of Detroit’s 2024 season has to start with the injury woes, particularly on defense.
Ben Johnson, now the head coach in Chicago, kept the offense relatively healthy. However, Detroit lost the most adjusted games lost to injury on defense across the entire league.
Aaron Glenn’s ability to keep that unit competitive despite those setbacks undoubtedly increased his head coaching viability.
But he leaves a unit that, because of their strong finish, earns a brutal schedule in 2025, particularly on the road.
Here’s a list of Detroit’s nine road opponents in 2025: Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Washington, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Kansas City and the LA Rams.
That schedule is scarier than The Shining.
Also worth noting: Detroit ran extremely lucky last season in close games.
The Lions saw four games decided by three or fewer points. They won all four. In eight games decided by a touchdown or less, they won seven.
With both coordinators exiting, the Lions remind me of the Eagles two years ago. While they’re not going to see a five- or six-win dropoff, an inferior campaign should be expected.
Sell Candidate: Seattle Seahawks
Remember how everyone was convinced the Falcons would dominate the NFC South and reach the playoffs last offseason?
This is how I’m viewing the Seahawks’ 2025 offseason.
Cooper Kupp is a good add but a notable downgrade from D.K. Metcalf. Seattle’s also buying high on Sam Darnold based on his performance with offensive wizard Kevin O’Connell.
Mike Macdonald’s defense should take a step forward next year, especially by retaining Ernest Jones.
But the core of my distrust with this team is because of the offensive line.
Zero quality additions have fixed a position group that ranked 21st and 28th, respectively, in pass-block win rate and run-block win rate.
For Darnold, it means transitioning to that record from a Vikings team that ranked second and 15th.
Additionally, Seattle drastically overperformed its underlying metrics last year.
The Seahawks finished 10-7 on an 8-9 expected win-loss record, per ftnfantasy.com. Driving that overperformance was a 6-2 record in game decided by seven or fewer points.
In a division where the 49ers should bounce back, and the Rams have made improvements, I’ll look to sell the Seahawks in various futures markets.
