NFL MVP Odds, Predictions: Josh Allen Favored After Week 14

Following Week 14, Bills quarterback Josh Allen (-455) is the current favorite in the 2024 NFL MVP odds. 

Prior to Week 12, the MVP award essentially proved a three-horse race between Allen (+150), Lamar Jackson (+250) and Jared Goff (+600).

Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, who opened at +30000 to win MVP before the season, jumped to +400 following a breakout performance against the Rams.

That performance, however, was nullified by an explosive performance by Allen against Los Angeles. The Bills quarterback amassed six total touchdowns in a 44-42 defeat, bolstering his case for the award.

For the full list of MVP odds, head to the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

NFL MVP Odds 2024

2024 NFL MVP Prediction

I predict Jared Goff (+2500) will win the 2024-25 NFL MVP award, based on the Lions’ outstanding offensive record last year and their relatively easy schedule against pass defenses. 

Goff has yet to claim the honor in his career but gets a favorable schedule of pass defenses with a top-tier unit. 

Last season, the Lions ranked fifth in passing success rate and seventh in pass EPA per play. 

This season, they play only seven games against teams who ranked 14th or better in pass defense EPA per play last season. Of the nine remaining games, seven come against teams 21st or worse last year. 

Additionally, the Lions play a majority of games at home this year, and all but three games indoors. 

While Goff averages the same amount of yards indoors, his mistakes dwindle. For his career, 63% of 82 career interceptions came outdoors. 

As a result, Goff is worth a flier at +3000 to win his first NFL MVP award. 

Favorites to Win 2024 NFL MVP

Bills quarterback Josh Allen (-455) is the current favorite to win NFL MVP.

Allen is the projected favorite to win his first award following a six-touchdown performance against the Rams. Only one other player is +500 or shorter to win the award: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (+400).

Prior to the start of the season, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+600) was the favorite to win NFL MVP. Currently, oddsmakers price Mahomes at +4000 to win MVP.

That preseason price rated Mahomes as one of only three players at +900 or shorter with Allen (+900) and Joe Burrow (+900) occupying the other two slots.

NFL MVP By Year

NFL Public Betting: MVP Award

Based on public betting data from BetMGM, Lions quarterback Jared Goff (+1300) is predicted to win NFL MVP.

Goff has received 11.8% of bets placed and 10.3% of all money wagered to claim the honor. Goff, who opened at +4000 before the regular season, has yet to claim an MVP award in his career.

While Goff rates out the most popular choice in terms of tickets, other signal callers are attracting a higher percentage of money.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen (-455) has attracted 18.1% of the total handle to win NFL MVP. Allen carries a 3.5% edge over Lamar Jackson (+1400), who’s aiming for a second consecutive MVP award.

The emerging candidate for MVP, though, is Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (+400).

Barkley opened at +30000 before the regular season and is down to +400 following an explosive performance against the Rams.

Despite receiving only 5.6% of bets placed — the sixth-highest percentage — Barkley’s price tag renders him the biggest liability at BetMGM.