- The Houston Texans (+100) are predicted to win the AFC South.
- Houston has captured two division titles in a row since drafting C.J. Stroud.
- A case for the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division in 2025.
For the second consecutive season, DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud guided the Texans to an AFC South title.
It wasn’t without controversy, though, as the Texans went from a top-half offense in 2023 to a bottom-seven unit in 2024. Accordingly, the Texans fired offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.
Still, the Texans enter the 2025 season as prohibitive favorites to win the division for a third straight year.
Here’s a look at the NFL odds and my AFC South prediction.
AFC South Odds, 2025 Winner
- Houston Texans: +100
- Indianapolis Colts: +320
- Jacksonville Jaguars: +333
- Tennessee Titans: +800
AFC South Prediction
Based on their strong offensive record in 2024 and strong head coaching hire in the offseason, I predict the Jacksonville Jaguars (+333).
This is, in my estimation, the toughest division to evaluate in 2025. Compared to other division winner markets, my confidence level in Jacksonville is relatively low.
There’s a desire to fade Houston, whose decision to fire Slowik is a head-scratcher to me.
Houston has also run fairly lucky in the last two years, posting a 13-6 record in games decided by seven or fewer points. In general, those games have 50-50 outcomes.
Jacksonville’s profile last year is a bit odd.
The offense finished 17th in DVOA against the hardest schedule of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. In 2023, they finished 18th against the fourth-hardest set of defenses.
Even more impressive? The Jaguars accomplished that record with 14 more adjusted games lost from injury, including 6.5 by Trevor Lawrence.
Liam Coen’s transformation of Tampa Bay’s offense, particularly the run game, is nothing short of marvelous. Year over year, Tampa Bay improved 20 spots in rush offense DVOA.
Jacksonville moving on from Christian Kirk and Evan Engram likely signals a desire to run the ball. But will it work behind an offensive line that finished 26th in PFF’s run-blocking grades?
Defensively, it’s difficult to foresee how Jacksonville improves from 2024.
The Jaguars finished 31st in defensive DVOA against the easiest set of opposing offenses. Unlike the offense, that record can’t be explained by a high injury frequency.
Still, the Jaguars enter 2025 as a positive regression candidate on the whole.
Last year, Jacksonville finished two wins under expected thanks to a 1-4 record in games decided by three or fewer points and 3-10 in games decided by seven or fewer points.
The schedule is relatively easy compared to the league, with Jacksonville facing only six games against teams with 10 or more wins last year. Four of those come at home.
As a result, it’s the Jaguars or nothing to win the AFC South in 2025.
AFC South Standings & Live Odds
| Position | Team | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Texans | +100 |
| 2 | Indianapolis Colts | +320 |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +333 |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | +800 |
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