- The Houston Texans (-105) are preseason favorites to win the AFC South.
- Houston earned a division win last season behind rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.
- Has the market caught up with Houston’s strong offseason?
Thanks to a clutch Week 18 win in Indianapolis, the Houston Texans earned a division title win in the 2023-24 season behind a rookie quarterback.
C.J. Stroud and company return for the Ohio State product’s sophomore season in which the Texans find themselves a division favorite in the AFC South.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my best bet for the AFC South division winner
AFC South Odds, 2024 Division Winner
- Houston Texans: -105
- Jacksonville Jaguars: +300
- Indianapolis Colts: +325
- Tennessee Titans: +1000
AFC South Predictions, 2024 Division Winner
Houston Texans (+160) to Win the AFC South
Writer’s Note: This analysis was written prior to the Texans acquiring wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Lost in the story of their 2023-24 division title is the fact that Houston encountered many obstacles on the way to the top.
The most notable storyline was Stroud’s concussion that sidelined him for two games. However, this was a Texans team that generally sustained myriad injuries.
According to ftnfantasy.com, Houston led the NFL with 159.1 adjusted games lost to injury. The next closest team? The Patriots with 128 AGL from injury.
Bettors should expect some natural regression this season and for their top personnel to shine. Amidst all those injuries, Houston ranked 12th in regular season DVOA.
Under Stroud, the Texans offense should remain a big task for opposing defenses with the return of Tank Dell and the addition of Joe Mixon.
On the defensive side of the ball, two key free agency additions help bolster a defensive line that ranked second in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
That’s defensive lineman Denico Autry and edge rusher Danielle Hunter, the latter of which replaces the departing Jonathan Grenard.
The big course correction for Houston needs to come in their pass defense, which ranked 23rd in DVOA.
However, safety Jimmie Ward returns from injury this season to pair with a strong corner in Derek Stingley.
Houston also hasn’t shied away from spending this offseason by adding Jeff Okudah, Mike Ford and Lonnie Johnson at cornerback.
Given those trends, it’s my opinion there’s a bigger gap between Houston and their chasers than the Texans AFC South odds suggest, so I’ll back the favorites in this market.
AFC South Odds, Finishing Position
| Team | Top 2 Finish | Finish 2nd | Finish 3rd | Finish 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | -750 | +180 | +400 | +1700 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -140 | +200 | +180 | +400 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -125 | +220 | +175 | +375 |
| Tennessee Titans | +325 | +600 | +325 | -210 |
AFC South Live Odds, Division Winner
| Week Number | Favorite to Win | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | Houston Texans | -105 |
| Week 2 | Houston Texans | -150 |
| Week 3 | Houston Texans | -300 |
| Week 4 | Houston Texans | -250 |
| Week 5 | Houston Texans | -350 |
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