- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+110) are predicted to win the NFC South.
- The Buccaneers have won the NFC South four straight years.
- A case for the Buccaneers to capture a fifth straight division title.
History trumped the offseason chaos as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earned yet another NFC South title in 2024.
The Falcons, bolstered by a new head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback, failed to come through as division favorites in 2024.
That opened the door for Tampa Bay, who won the division despite finishing 0-2 SU against Atlanta. Now, the Bucs find themselves listed as favorites to win for a fifth straight year.
Here’s a look at the NFL odds and my NFC South prediction for the 2025 division winner.
NFC South Odds, 2025 Division Winner
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +110
- Atlanta Falcons: +220
- Carolina Panthers: +450
- New Orleans Saints: +800
NFC South Prediction
Based on their likely defensive improvement and ability to retain Chris Godwin, I predict the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+110) win the NFC South in 2025.
All was set up for one of the three chasers to deny Tampa a fourth straight division title in 2024…..and they couldn’t do it.
Tampa changed their offensive coordinator in anticipation of a first-place schedule following a season where they finished 1.5 wins over expected.
It somehow got worse during the season with Tampa Bay sustaining loads of injuries to key players.
At two key position groups – wide receiver and defensive back – the Bucs lost 19.1 and 33.2 adjusted games. Both are top-three or higher across the league.
Still, Tampa Bay jumped from 20th to seventh in offensive DVOA. Defensively, Tampa only fell from 14th/14th/8th in total, pass defense and rush defense DVOA, respectively, to 16th/23rd/6th.
Compared to last year, Tampa faces a much easier schedule in a division where uncertainty exists around all three other teams.
They also avoided losing key personnel in free agency. Godwin returns to an offense whose only blemish is the departure of Liam Coen.
Defensively, the Bucs added Haason Reddick on a one-year deal.
Plus, the Bucs remain as the best team along the offensive line in the division. Last year, Tampa Bay finished as a top-six unit in both pass-block and run-block win rate.
Oh…..and did I mention this team finished unlucky last season thanks to a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less last year?
If you’re betting against this team, the argument is that they lost Liam Coen and can’t sustain their offensive production in his absence.
However, I argue the ability to keep all necessary personnel matters more than Coen’s departure.
Conversely, only Carolina made noticeable improvements this offseason. Given they’ll likely prove a public division winner pick, I’d argue it’s wise to steer clear of the Panthers.
Pair that with the Falcons’ key departures, and I’m slightly surprised by this pricing.
While external factors like scheduling or rest discrepancies could influence my thinking later, right now it’s the Bucs or nothing to win the NFC South.
NFC South Standings & Live Odds
| Position | Team | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +110 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | +220 |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | +450 |
| 4 | New Orleans Saints | +800 |
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