NFL Playoff Odds: Make or Miss Postseason Predictions

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Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill runs for yardage during the first half of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 13, 2024, 12:55 PM
  • The case for the Los Angeles Rams to fall out of their wild card spot.
  • Take a plus-money price on this AFC East team to miss the playoffs.

Make or Miss playoff prices for the 2024-25 season are live at the BetMGM online sportsbook

Currently, there are 11 teams with prices at or above -200 to reach the postseason. Headlining those 11 squads are the Chiefs (-450), the 49ers (-450) and the Ravens (-300). 

On the other end of the spectrum, there are 10 teams sitting at -250 or higher to miss the playoffs, including four at -550 or higher: the Panthers, Patriots, Broncos and Giants. 

Check out the full list of make and miss prices below.  NFL betting lines reflect the time of writing and are subject to movement. 

2024-25 Make/Miss Playoff Prices

NFL TeamMake PlayoffsMiss Playoffs
Arizona Cardinals+350-450
Atlanta Falcons-275+220
Baltimore Ravens-300+250
Buffalo Bills-210+175
Carolina Panthers+1000-2000
Chicago Bears-125+105
Cincinnati Bengals-250+200
Cleveland Browns+165-200
Dallas Cowboys-225+185
Denver Broncos+500-750
Detroit Lions-225+185
Green Bay Packers-185+150
Houston Texans-200+165
Indianapolis Colts+165-200
Jacksonville Jaguars+100-120
Kansas City Chiefs-500+375
Los Angeles Chargers-115-105
Los Angeles Rams+105-130
Las Vegas Raiders+310-400
Miami Dolphins-175+145
Minnesota Vikings+240-300
New England Patriots+800-1400
New Orleans Saints+175-210
New York Giants+400-550
New York Jets-145+120
Philadelphia Eagles-210+170
Pittsburgh Steelers+175-210
San Francisco 49ers-450+350
Seattle Seahawks+200-250
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+150-185
Tennessee Titans+400-550
Washington Commanders+275-350

NFL Playoff Predictions – Make/Miss Playoffs

Rams to MISS Playoffs (-130)

Aaron Donald is gone from a defense that wasn’t very good last year. That’s a big concern for a team that largely beat up on bad teams last year. 

The Rams finished the 2023 regular season 22nd in defensive DVOA and 20th in defensive EPA per play. 

Plus, Los Angeles’ defense featured 11 players that played at least 50% of all snaps. According to PFF’s defensive grades, only three finished with a rating of 75 or higher. 

Donald led the Rams in that metric with a rating of 90.8. Without him, expect opposing offensive lines to experience more success against Rams pass rushers. 

Plus, this was a 10-7 team last season that played more like a 9-8 team, according to PFF’s pythagorean win totals. 

Of those 10 wins, only two came against fellow playoff teams. They also won all four games against the Cardinals and Seahawks, a trend I expect will change next season. 

Further, their two wins against 2023 playoff teams came against the Browns with a backup quarterback and the 49ers in Week 18 with nothing for which to play. 

Also worth noting – Los Angeles finished last season as the healthiest team a year after losing the second-most adjusted games to injury. 

Further, the Rams play seven games this season against teams that made the playoffs last year and nine games against teams with a win total of eight or higher. 

As a result, expect Los Angeles to miss the upcoming postseason, barring some scheduling luck. 

Dolphins to MISS the Playoffs (+145)

I’m a huge fan of the Jets’ outlook this season, so this is really a choice between the Dolphins and Bills.

I settled on the Dolphins because, unlike last year, they face an absolutely loaded schedule, particularly away from home. 

As it stands, Miami is set to face 11 games next year against teams with win totals of eight or higher and six games against teams projected for nine wins or more. 

Of those 11 games, seven come on the road, including four of six against the teams with win totals of nine or higher. 

Last year, the Dolphins struggled immensely against strong competition. 

Sample six games against fellow playoff teams and bettors will find Miami won only once. 

Those were also the only six games they played against teams that finished the regular season with at least eight wins. 

Plus, Miami’s dealing with loads of roster turnover. 

Their offense should remain outstanding behind Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, and Tyreek Hill, but their defense could suffer next season. 

Christian Wilkins, Andrew van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, Raekwon Davis and DeShon Elliott all exited the team. 

Although they made some nice additions – Shaq Barrett and Kendall Fuller come to mind – I’m willing to fade them in a loaded AFC.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.