- The case for buying the Jaguars off a home loss.
- Can the Ravens start the season 3-0 with a win over the Colts?
- Should bettors continue to fade the Cardinals?
This NFL season at BetMGM, online sportsbook users have an opportunity to win big money.
In a free-to-play football survivor contest, users select one team each week to win that week’s game. The only catch – players cannot use the same team more than once in the season.
The last contestant standing takes home a $100,000 grand prize, or a share if multiple players are left standing.
Here, I’ll break down my approach to Week 3’s survivor pick and the best selection for users. NFL odds and lines are reflective at time of writing.
NFL Week 3 Survivor Candidates
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) vs. Houston Texans
NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
This is a tricky week from a survivor standpoint.
Usually, I’ll look to use a favorite in survivor that I also like to cover the spread. This week, few options exist that fit both criteria.
I won’t fault anyone who wants to use the Dallas Cowboys, but I hate burning a quality team this early in the season.
That leads me to the Ravens, who have started the season 2-0. Historically, the Ravens have produced successful results as big favorites behind Lamar Jackson.
For his career, Jackson is 23-6 straight up when he’s listed as a home favorite, including 15-3 when the game is played outside the division.
But, Jackson is even more successful as a sizable home favorite.
In 13 career non-divisional home games when Jackson’s listed at -6 or higher, he’s 12-1 straight up. His only failure over that span? Back in November 2020.
Conversely, the Colts are 8-25 straight up when they’re a road underdog listed at +6 or higher. In games outside their division, the record drops to 7-21 straight up.
However, all of those results came without a rookie quarterback and head coach. This also sets up as a great sell-high spot on the Colts, who picked up a Week 2 divisional win over the Texans.
Even if you set aside the historical precedent, I worry about the Colts defense against a high-flying Baltimore pass game.
Through the first two weeks, Baltimore ranks fifth in pass offense DVOA. Meanwhile, the Colts sit 13th in the corresponding defensive category, according to ftnfantasy.com.
On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is fifth in total defensive DVOA through two weeks, while Indianapolis is 19th in total offense.
Given those outputs, the Ravens present a problematic matchup for the Colts, even in J.K. Dobbins’ absence.
Use the Ravens as this week’s survivor pick.
