- Why I’m supporting the Las Vegas Raiders as home underdogs.
- Three AFC East teams to use in six-point teasers.
- Read on for full analysis and best bets.
Amongst the countless Week 3 NFL odds markets at the BetMGM Sportsbook, one option for bettors is a teaser.
Largely popular amongst recreational bettors, a teaser allows bettors to move multiple lines in their favor with varying payouts depending on the total legs.
NFL Betting Predictions: Best Week 3 Teaser Legs
Allow me to present my five best NFL Week 3 teaser legs in order of confidence.
Best NFL Week 3 Teaser Leg No. 1: Las Vegas Raiders +7.5
Under no circumstances should the Pittsburgh Steelers be road favorites against anyone.
To me, this line is an overreaction to the Raiders’ lackluster performance in Week 2 against the Bills. However, it should be obvious to anyone the Bills are light years ahead of the Steelers.
This line could easily move based on the Steelers’ result on Monday Night Football, but I’ll take Las Vegas through two key numbers (three and seven) based on the current line.
Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-5 ATS as an underdog and 85% as a six-point teaser when he’s a dog.
Best NFL Week 3 Teaser Leg No. 2: Tennessee Titans +9.5
I covered the Titans as part of my early Week 3 best bets, and the line is already on the move.
Mike Vrabel is great as an underdog, cashing at a 71% clip when he’s getting three or more points. Plus, he’s 25-8 as a six-point teaser when he’s an underdog.
There’s no denying the Browns’ quality, but a double-digit home win feels unlikely.
Tennessee’s outstanding run defense should keep them in the game, and six points gets them through the key number of seven.
Best NFL Week 3 Teaser Leg No. 3: New York Jets +9
Another one of my early Week 3 plays, the Jets offer great value as home underdogs.
Remember, this was a side that beat Josh Allen and the Bills outright in Week 1 behind Zach Wilson.
Their outstanding defense should continue to force turnovers from Mac Jones, and the ground game should exploit a weak Patriots run defense.
Although New York lost both head-to-head meetings against New England last season, they stayed within this number in both.
Back the Jets off an embarrassing loss to keep it close.
Best NFL Week 3 Teaser Leg No. 4: Miami Dolphins -0.5
I question if the Dolphins can cover six-and-a-half points against the Broncos, but I am confident they win the game outright.
Last season, Miami finished the regular season 6-2 straight up at home. In one of those losses, Tua Tagovailoa didn’t start.
That shapes up well against the Broncos, who have lost two straight at home to open the season. Although their defense could give Miami fits, Denver only has three road wins over the last two seasons.
Take Miami down through the key numbers of six and three.
Best NFL Week 3 Teaser Leg No. 5: Buffalo Bills -0.5
Washington is off to a 2-0 start, but I question if that record reflects their actual quality.
Buffalo’s coming off a beatdown of the Raiders, and their defense should cause problems for Commanders starting quarterback Sam Howell.
Washington’s defense could, in theory, do enough that they cover the spread. However, the Cardinals and Broncos aren’t on the same level as the Bills.
Lastly, Josh Allen is outstanding on the moneyline when he’s a big favorite. In games Allen is getting more than three-and-a-half points, he’s 33-8-0 straight up.
Take the Bills down to (essentially) a pick ‘em, but stay away from a spread standpoint.
What’s a Teaser Bet & How Do They Work?
In a teaser bet, bettors select two or more markets in which they’d like to adjust the line. The most common adjustment is six points, though BetMGM allows players to move lines by any amount between six and 14 points.
However, bettors pay a premium to move the line through key numbers. In the NFL, these numbers are three, six, seven, 10, 14 and 17.
In a two-team, six-point teaser, bettors have to lay -130. In a three-team, six-point teaser, the price rises to +160.
Bettors can include as many legs as they want. But remember, all legs have to cash for the whole bet to win, making teasers with more teams inherently riskier.
With teasers, bettors should remember two things.
First, always tease through the key numbers. Second, never tease through zero.
My other recommendation is to focus on home teams. Some handicappers will utilize road teams in a teaser, but I’ve found visitors experience more volatile results.
Bettors should learn the BetMGM house rules associated with teasers pushing. If a leg pushes in a teaser with three or more legs, the leg is removed and the odds are recalculated.
In a two-team teaser, if one leg pushes, the entire bet pushes and bettors are refunded their stake.
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