- The Packers are -5.5 point favorites vs the Bears
- Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Green Bay Packers (6-3-0) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (4-5-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Chicago, IL.
The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Packers vs. Bears Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.
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Packers vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Packers | -5.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -250 |
| Bears | +5.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +200 |
Packers vs. Bears Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Packers vs Bears Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Packers will cover the spread with 59.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today
- Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Tucker Kraft has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tucker Kraft has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- D’Andre Swift has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- D.J. Moore has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- D.J. Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- D’Andre Swift has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 50% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bears vs Packers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 44.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 51.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 32.5 -115 | 32.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bears vs Packers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 67.5 -115 | 67.5 -115 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 66.5 -110 | 66.5 -120 |
Packers Best Bets:
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+9.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have scored first in their last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 98% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+6.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers art 4-5 (-1.55 Units / -15.58% ROI).
- Packers are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 23.85% ROI
- Packers are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI
- Packers are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / ROI
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4.02% ROI).
- Bears are 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -20.8% ROI
- Bears are 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Bears are 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Packers are undefeated (3-0) on the road this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .490.
The Packers were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.
The Packers were 3-7 (.300) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .375.
The Packers were undefeated (4-0) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .607.
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers
The Bears are winless (0-4) on the road this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .490.
The Bears were winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Bears are winless (0-7) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .250.
The Bears are winless (0-7) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .250.
Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears have scored on 9.1% of their drives in the first quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed scores on 19% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Bears have a third down conversion rate of just 29.0% in the second half this season — T-worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 32.1% in the second half this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Bears have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 30% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Packers have pressured opposing QBs on 28.3% of passing plays since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Packers have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed just -0.14 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
Packers QBs have been 42 sacked since the 2023 season — 2nd-fewest in NFL. The Bears have sacked the quarterback 54 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-fewest in NFL.
Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats
The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of plays against a light rush this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Packers ran 53% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts against a light rush this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Packers have averaged -1.07 epa per play against a light rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.05.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears have run none of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Bears had a third down conversion rate of 7% in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bears scored on 9% of their drives in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 36%.
Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats
The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 55.6 with a light front (71 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 87.2.
The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 34.7 on 3rd down (56 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 87.0.
The Packers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 7% on 3rd and long since Week 7 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 50% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 26% (8 completions/31 attempts) in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 55%.
The Bears defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 76% on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Bears defense have allowed -0.19 epa per play with a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bears defense allowed 58.8 receiving yards per game (1,000/17) to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32.4.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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