- The Packers are a 2.5-point home underdog against the Lions.
- The Lions have won 12 straight games against opponents on a winning streak.
- My Lions vs. Packers prediction depends on the status of Jordan Love.
The Lions, who travel to the Green Bay Packers in Week 9, will look to move to 2-0 in the NFC North.
Detroit, which is 5-0 SU and ATS over their last five games, blew out the Titans last week. Despite only 225 yards of offense, the Lions won 52-14.
Green Bay traveled to Jacksonville in Week 8. A 30-27 win marked the Packers’ fourth straight win despite finishing 2-2 ATS over that span.
Bet on Packers vs. Lions and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 9 Odds: Packers vs. Lions
2024-12-06T01:15:00ZPackers at Lions
Packers vs. Lions Prediction
If Jordan Love plays and the Packers are +3 or better, I’ll take the Packers Spread as my Packers vs. Lions prediction.
If Love doesn’t play, I still like using the Packers. However, I’ll elect to tease them up as part of a two-team, six-point teaser.
The near certainty in this game is that Detroit will close a public road favorite. After all, this team is 6-1 SU and ATS this season, including five consecutive covers.
But it’s also the first time Detroit has to play outside this year. Historically, Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are significantly better indoors.
Detroit is 30-9 ATS with the QB/Head Coach combo inside compared to only 9-7 ATS outdoors.
The last time Detroit closed a favorite of -3 or higher outside, they lost 28-13 against the Chicago Bears.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is also brilliant as an underdog. LaFleur is 22-10 ATS as a dog, including 16-3 at +3 or higher. In that 19-game sample, he’s 18-1 vs. a six-point tease.
Beyond those trends, there’s a clear matchup edge for Green Bay on Sunday.
Green Bay ranks ninth in defensive EPA per play. It’s only the second time all year Detroit faced a team 10th or better.
The last time? A trip to Minnesota, who closed a market favorite, fell 31-29 but stayed within this number.
Detroit’s run defense also suffered immensely in that trip to Minneapolis. The Lions posted its second-worst rush defense grade of the season, per PFF.
That was their first game without Aidan Hutchinson. While they held up against the Titans, the game state must be considered.
Green Bay ranks third in PFF’s rushing grades and sits 14th in EPA per play.
If the Packers can run the ball effectively and contain Detroit’s offense outdoors, I have a hard time envisioning this game finishing outside a field goal.
Wait for news on Love, then decide if on a spread bet or a Green Bay tease.
Packers vs. Lions: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Packers vs. Lions public betting data and insights.
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