- The Packers are a 13.5-point home favorite against the Saints.
- The Packers have won 10 straight games against teams with a losing record.
- My Packers vs. Saints prediction is for New Orleans to cover the spread.
To cap off the NFL Week 16 slate, the Packers host the Saints at Lambeau Field on Monday Night Football.
Green Bay captured a dominant 30-13 win over the Seahawks on Sunday night. Green Bay’s win moved the Packers to 10-4 on the season, two games behind the Lions in the NFC North.
New Orleans nearly snatched an outright win over the Commanders thanks to some luck. A late touchdown left New Orleans a point behind with the Saints failing on the two-point try.
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NFL Week 16 Odds: Packers vs. Saints
Packers vs. Saints Prediction
Based on the Saints’ strong ATS record under their interim coach and their extra rest for MNF, my Packers vs. Saints prediction is the Saints Spread (+13.5, -110).
New Orleans, at the moment, appears to mirror the Raiders’ ATS strength last season.
Under interim coach Darren Rizzi, the Saints are 3-2 ATS in five games, including 3-1 as underdogs.
While Week 16’s trip to Green Bay marks their biggest spread under Rizzi, I’m encouraged by the fact New Orleans played well against a rested Washington team at home.
Now New Orleans plays with extra time to prepare for Monday’s game. Historically, that’s a good spot to back a big underdog.
Since 2003, road underdogs between +9.5 and +16.5 with 8-14 days between games against a team with 7-8 days between games are 66% ATS.
Even if you just look at those dogs with eight days to prepare, they’re still 18-10-2 ATS, including 6-2-1 when priced between +13.5 and +16.5.
It’s also a solid spot to fade Packers quarterback Jordan Love as a market favorite.
Love is only 7-7 ATS as a market favorite in his career. However, Monday’s game marks the first time Love will close north of a touchdown favorite.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is also a relatively inexperienced big favorite. Although he’s 20-14 ATS as a home favorite in his career, LaFleur is 4-4 ATS at -9.5 or higher.
Pair that data with the fact New Orleans ranks 12th in defensive EPA per play over the last three games, and I’ll grab the dog at a huge number.
Betting Packers vs. Saints: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Packers vs. Saints public betting data and insights.
