Panthers vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 8

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Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) before an NFL football game in Empower Field at Mile High Sunday, Dec. 24, 2023, in Denver. (AP Photo/Geneva Heffernan)

(AP Photo/Geneva Heffernan)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 24, 2024, 4:18 PM

The Broncos are -9 point favorites vs the Panthers
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Carolina Panthers (1-6-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (4-3-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10 (-115).

The Panthers vs. Broncos Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Panthers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Panthers	+10 -105	41.5 -110	+425
Broncos	-10 -115	41.5 -110	-600

Panthers vs. Broncos Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Panthers vs Broncos Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Panthers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Panthers Player Prop Bets Today

Bryce Young has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+11.60 Units / 67% ROI)
Bryce Young has hit the Passing Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 50% ROI)
Diontae Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 63% ROI)
Adam Thielen has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 47% ROI)
Adam Thielen has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.05 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Courtland Sutton has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.10 Units / 79% ROI)
Josh Reynolds has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 25% ROI)
Josh Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 44% ROI)

Panthers Best Bets:

The Carolina Panthers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.70 Units / 28% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.55 Units / 29% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 away games (+2.85 Units / 25% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 18 games (+2.70 Units / 15% ROI)

Broncos Best Bets:

The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 38% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 45% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 39% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)

Panthers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Panthers art 1-6 (-5.5 Units / -72.37% ROI).

Panthers are 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -55.71% ROI
Panthers are 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Panthers are 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 5-2 (+2.85 Units / 37.01% ROI).

Broncos are 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 54.38% ROI
Broncos are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Broncos are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Carolina Panthers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Panthers are 1-4 (.200) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Panthers are winless (0-17) when committing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .407.

The Panthers were winless (0-4) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Panthers are winless (0-17) when committing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .407.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Carolina Panthers

The Broncos are 7-2 (.778) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — 9th-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed an average of 136.4 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Broncos are winless (0-9) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .292.

The Broncos were winless (0-5) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .263.

Additional Matchup Notes for Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos were successful on 61.9% of plays they ran against a base front last week — best in NFL. The Panthers allowed their opponents to be successful on 58.7% of plays with a base front last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Broncos have run successful plays on 49.3% of rush attempts against a base front this season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed successful plays on 52.3% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Broncos have run successful plays on just 35.6% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — worst in NFL. The Panthers have allowed successful plays on just 41.3% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Panthers have run successful plays on just 41.5% of pass attempts with motion this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 38.0% of pass attempts against motion this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Panthers have been successful on just 34.9% of plays they have ran against a base rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 34.8% of plays with a base rush this season — best in NFL.

The Panthers ran successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts last week — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Broncos allowed successful plays on just 30.8% of pass attempts last week — best in NFL.

Carolina Panthers Offense: Important Stats

The Panthers ran successful plays on 37% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Panthers have scored on 50% of their drives in close and late situations since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Panthers turned the ball over on downs 25 times last season — most in NFL.

The Panthers averaged -0.21 epa per play on play action passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats

The Broncos have run successful plays on 29% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 91% of rush attempts on motion plays in Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Broncos have targeted RBs 27% of the time (195 Pass Attempts/737 plays) since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/513 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Carolina Panthers Defense: Important Stats

The Panthers defense has allowed 3.9 TDs per game (27/7) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.3.

The Panthers defense has allowed 33.7 points per game to opposing offenses (236 points / 7 games) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21.4.

The Panthers defense has allowed successful plays on 63% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Panthers defense have allowed 0.17 epa per play with a base front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats

The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.

The Broncos defense has allowed 6.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,136 yards / 343 touches) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos defense has blitzed 134 times this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

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