- The Falcons are -8.5 point favorites vs the Panthers
- Total (Over/Under): 48 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Carolina Panthers (4-12-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (8-8-0) on Jan. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta, GA.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).
The Panthers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.
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Panthers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Panthers | +8.5 -115 | 48 -110 | +350 |
| Falcons | -8.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -450 |
Panthers vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 61.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Panthers vs Falcons Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Panthers will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Panthers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Panthers Player Prop Bets Today
- Miles Sanders has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryce Young has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Chuba Hubbard has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Chuba Hubbard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Eddy Pineiro has hit the Field Goals Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Panthers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Panthers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 95.5 -115 | 95.5 -120 |
Panthers Best Bets:
- The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Carolina Panthers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Carolina Panthers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Carolina Panthers have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.45 Units / 22% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 20 games (+2.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Panthers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Panthers art 7-9 (-2.9 Units / -16.57% ROI).
- Panthers are 4-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -18.29% ROI
- Panthers are 12-4 when betting the Over for +7.6 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Panthers are 4-12 when betting the Under for -9.2 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 6-9 (-4 Units / -22.47% ROI).
- Falcons are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -5.79% ROI
- Falcons are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Falcons are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
Carolina Panthers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers were 1-13 (.071) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.
The Panthers were winless (0-4) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.
The Panthers were winless (0-8) when losing at least one fumble last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
The Panthers are 2-7 (.222) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .658.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Carolina Panthers
The Falcons are undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.
The Falcons are 7-3 (.700) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .594.
The Falcons were 4-5 (.444) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
Additional Matchup Notes for Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have a third down conversion rate of just 12.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Panthers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 13.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Falcons ran successful plays on 68.2% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 2nd-best in NFL. The Panthers allowed successful plays on 55.9% of rush attempts with a base front last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Falcons have run successful plays on 85.7% of rush attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed successful plays on 73.3% of rush attempts on play action passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Panthers have run successful plays on just 35.8% of pass attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on just 37.9% of pass attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Panthers have run successful plays on 47.3% of rush attempts with motion this season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 49.5% of rush attempts against motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Panthers have run successful plays on just 36.9% of pass attempts against a light front this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Falcons have pressured opposing QBs on 35.7% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
Carolina Panthers Offense: Important Stats
The Panthers have averaged -0.27 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
The Panthers averaged 13.6 drives per TD in the 1st half last season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.9.
The Panthers have scored on 50% of their drives in close and late situations since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Panthers have averaged -0.24 epa per play on play action passes since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons have averaged -1.16 epa per play when their QB has scrambled this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.30.
The Falcons have run successful plays on 59% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Falcons have gone three and out on 12% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
Carolina Panthers Defense: Important Stats
The Panthers defense has allowed successful plays on 24% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Panthers defense has allowed 178.4 rushing yards per game (2,855/16) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 120.5.
The Panthers defense has allowed an average of 2.3 yards after contact per carry (1,005 carries) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.
The Panthers defense has allowed successful plays on 22% of plays with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense have allowed 7.9 yards per play with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.1.
The Falcons defense have allowed 0.70 epa per play with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.
The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 70% of plays with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
56% of the plays ran against the Falcons were in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 17 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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