- The Bears are -6 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 39 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The New England Patriots (2-7-0) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (4-4-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Chicago, IL.
The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-105).
The Patriots vs. Bears Over/Under is 39 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +6 -115 | 39 -110 | +230 |
| Bears | -6 -105 | 39 -110 | -275 |
Patriots vs. Bears Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 65.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Bears Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Joey Slye has hit the Field Goals Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- D.J. Moore has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- D’Andre Swift has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 50% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bears vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 24.5 -115 | 24.5 -115 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 16.5 -120 | 16.5 -110 |
| Keenan Allen (CHI) | 41.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 |
| D.J. Moore (CHI) | 47.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 43.5 -115 | 43.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bears vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 70.5 -120 | 70.5 -115 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 51.5 -110 | 51.5 -120 |
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 17 games (+1.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have scored last in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 17 games (+1.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games at home (+10.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+9.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have scored first in their last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 98% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots art 3-5 (-2.4 Units / -24.37% ROI).
- Patriots are 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -13.33% ROI
- Patriots are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
- Patriots are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / ROI
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 4-3 (+0.7 Units / 7.91% ROI).
- Bears are 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.46% ROI
- Bears are 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Bears are 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Patriots are 3-7 (.300) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .651.
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Patriots are winless (0-13) when allowing 3 or more sacks since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .349.
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bears were winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Bears are winless (0-6) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
The Bears were winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .336.
The Bears were 1-7 (.125) when losing at least one fumble last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears have been successful on just 37.1% of plays they have ran against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 38.9% of plays with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Bears have been successful on just 37.1% of plays they have ran against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 38.9% of plays with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Bears have been successful on just 37.1% of plays they have ran against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 38.9% of plays with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on just 41.7% of pass attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed successful plays on just 42.9% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on just 41.7% of pass attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed successful plays on just 42.9% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Patriots have averaged just -0.13 epa per play with motion since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed just -0.08 epa per play against motion since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots started 65 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Patriots averaged -0.56 epa per play against a light rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bears have run none of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Bears have started 11 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — most in NFL.
The Bears averaged -0.55 epa per play against a heavy rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,375 yards / 850 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Patriots defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 19 of 272 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) this season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Patriots defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (16 completions/38 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense have allowed -0.18 epa per play on motion plays this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Bears defense have allowed -0.20 epa per play with a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.
The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 23% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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