- The Bengals are -9 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The New England Patriots (0-0-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (0-0-0) on Sep. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
The Bengals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -9 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Bengals Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +9 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +310 |
| Bengals | -9 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -400 |
Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this game with 81.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Bengals Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 60.9% confidence.
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Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kendrick Bourne has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Joey Slye has hit the Field Goals Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mike Gesicki has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Trenton Irwin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jake Browning has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 4 games at home (+5.25 Units / 104% ROI)
- Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bengals vs Patriots
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Zack Moss (CIN) | +650 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | +650 |
| Tee Higgins (Cin) | +800 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bengals vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 12.5 -115 | 12.5 -115 |
| Demario Douglas (NE) | 37.5 -120 | 37.5 -115 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 27.5 -120 | 27.5 -110 |
| Ja’Lynn Polk (NE) | 30.5 -115 | 30.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bengals vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 46.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -120 |
| Jacoby Brissett (NE) | 11.5 -105 | 11.5 -125 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 34.5 -115 | 34.5 -115 |
| Zack Moss (CIN) | 46.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 |
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+4.95 Units / 93% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 3 away games (+3.05 Units / 97% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in their last 1 away games (+2.20 Units / 220% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.15 Units / 48% ROI)
Bengals Best Bets:
- The Cincinnati Bengals have scored first in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Team Total Over in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Patriots went 1-2 (-1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -48.68% ROI
- Patriots are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Patriots are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / ROI
Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Bengals went 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Bengals are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -100% ROI
- Bengals are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Bengals are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .326.
The Patriots are winless (0-10) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .349.
Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bengals were 7-2 (.778) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Patriots allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 46 s last season — 3rd-highest in NFL.
The Bengals are 17-5 (.773) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2022 season — 9th-best in NFL. The Patriots has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 31 s since the 2022 season — 2nd-highest in NFL.
The Bengals were 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .623.
The Bengals were 4-2 (.667) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .424.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals RBs averaged just 1.6 yards after contact per carry last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Patriots allowed just 1.6 yards after contact per carry to RBs last season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Bengals averaged 0.25 epa per play against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots allowed 0.35 epa per play with a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
Bengals RBs have averaged just 74.8 rushing yards per game since the 2022 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed an average of just 100.6 rushing yards per game since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on just 29.7% of pass attempts with motion in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bengals pressured opposing QBs on 37.5% of pass attempts against motion in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on just 32.6% of pass attempts against a base front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL. The Bengals pressured opposing QBs on 33.7% of pass attempts with a base front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on just 34.6% of pass attempts against a base rush in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bengals pressured opposing QBs on 31.7% of pass attempts with a base rush in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-best in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots started 65 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 11% of plays against a base rush in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 17% of plays in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats
The Bengals averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.
The Bengals threw the ball 36% of the time (10 Pass Attempts/28 plays) in close and late situations last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.
The Bengals ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bengals ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
20% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,371 yards / 849 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Patriots defense allowed 9 of 12 (75%) first downs on the ground in Week 18 — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 51% of pass attempts on contested throws since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats
The Bengals defense allowed 8.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (6,619 yards / 818 touches) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.
The Bengals defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 1st quarter in Week 18 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Bengals defense allowed a passer rating of just 24.8 when they pressured the QB (91 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 53.5.
The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 29% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
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