- The Cardinals are -6 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The New England Patriots (3-10-0) visit State Farm Stadium to take on the Arizona Cardinals (6-7-0) on Dec. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Glendale, AZ.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Cardinals Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Cardinals Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +6 -110 | 46 -110 | +200 |
| Cardinals | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -250 |
Patriots vs. Cardinals Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Cardinals will win this game with 78.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Cardinals Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cardinals will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Drake Maye has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+4.95 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cardinals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Marvin Harrison Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyler Murray has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- James Conner has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Greg Dortch has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matt Prater has hit the Field Goals Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Cardinals vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 13.5 -110 | 13.5 -120 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 53.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Cardinals vs Patriots
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 49.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 |
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+4.69 Units / 59% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+3.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets:
- The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+6.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.28 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 20% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots art 5-7 (-2.6 Units / -18.25% ROI).
- Patriots are 3-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -13.85% ROI
- Patriots are 8-5 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 17.48% ROI
- Patriots are 5-8 when betting the Under for -3.8 Units / ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cardinals are 8-5 (+2.3 Units / 15.75% ROI).
- Cardinals are 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 1.33% ROI
- Cardinals are 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -18.88% ROI
- Cardinals are 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 10.49% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Arizona Cardinals
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .324.
The Patriots were 1-7 (.125) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Arizona Cardinals: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Cardinals were winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.
The Cardinals were 1-6 (.143) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.
The Cardinals were 1-12 (.077) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.
The Cardinals were winless (0-10) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have a third down conversion rate of just 5.7% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — worst in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 8.6% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Cardinals have run successful plays on 35.4% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on just 21.6% of passing plays since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Cardinals have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 19.2% of pass attempts this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on just 20.8% of passing plays this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Patriots have thrown for 20+ yards on 24 of 416 attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Cardinals allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Patriots have scored just 3.8 points per Red Zone drive this season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed just 3.9 points per Red Zone drive this season — T-4th-best in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Patriots averaged -0.56 epa per play against a light rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
Arizona Cardinals Offense: Important Stats
The Cardinals had 23 rushes of 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Cardinals have targeted TEs 32% of the time (308 Pass Attempts/951 plays) since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
The Cardinals went for two on 36% of PATs last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
The Cardinals ran successful plays on 75% of rush attempts against a base rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of 129.8 against play action passes (83 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 103.0.
20% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 67% of plays open coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
Arizona Cardinals Defense: Important Stats
19% of the plays ran against the Cardinals were in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Cardinals defense has allowed successful plays on 50% of plays in the 1st half since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Cardinals defense has allowed successful plays on 64% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Cardinals defense allowed 6 TD passes when the opposing QB was scrambling last season — most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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