- The Patriots are a 4.5-point home underdog against the Rams.
- The Patriots have lost each of their last nine games following a win.
- My Patriots vs. Rams prediction is for Los Angeles to cover the spread.
After a blowout win as road underdogs in Chicago, the Patriots return home to battle the Rams.
New England’s third win of the season came in a 19-3 victory over the Bears. In the process, New England’s defense sacked Caleb Williams nine times.
Los Angeles fell as home favorites against Miami on Monday Night Football. That ended a three-game winning streak for the Rams.
Bet on Patriots vs. Rams and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Patriots vs. Rams
Patriots vs. Rams Prediction
Based on the Patriots’ weak pass defense and LA’s improving offensive metrics, my Patriots vs. Rams prediction is the Rams Spread (-4.5, -110).
The fact this spread sits above a key number is slightly worrisome, but I like the combination of a buy-low spot on the Rams with a sell-high spot on the Patriots.
The Rams have struggled to create explosive opportunities through the air. While they sit eighth in dropback success rate, they’re 19th in dropback EPA per play.
But they’ve improved recently following the returns of Copper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Since Week 8, they’re ninth in both passing EPA per play and success rate.
That should allow for success against a bad Patriots pass defense. Excluding Week 10 at Chicago, the Patriots rank 30th in dropback EPA per play and 29th in pass success rate.
I’m also not sure the market has caught on to the Rams’ defensive improvement.
Since Week 7 – the point where the schedule strength softened – the Rams are second in defensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive success rate.
Over that same time period, the Patriots rank 19th and 23rd in the corresponding offensive categories.
The Rams also match a historically profitable system in this spot.
Road favorites at -3 or higher off a loss as favorites are 57% ATS since 2003. Shrink the sample down to games since 2017, and the system improves to 61.2% ATS.
As a result, back the Rams to get back to winning ways and cover the spread in Foxborough.
Patriots vs. Rams: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 57% | 45% | 39% | 54% |
| Patriots | 43% | 55% | 61% | 46% |
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