- The Ravens are -3.5 against the Bengals.
- Baltimore enters the game off a disappointing loss against the Browns.
- Cincinnati lost at home to the Houston Texans on Sunday.
Ahead of Week 11 Thursday Night Football, I’m here to provide a trio of Ravens vs. Bengals predictions.
Both teams enter their Week 11 meeting fresh off losses. The Ravens earned a 14-point lead against the Browns but squandered that lead in a 33-31 defeat.
As for the Bengals, they struggled in Week 10 at home against the Texans and lost 30-27 on a last-gasp field goal.
This marks the second meeting of the season between these sides. In Week 2, the Ravens won 27-24 against the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Thursday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest.
Ravens vs. Bengals Betting Odds
- Baltimore Ravens Moneyline: -190
- Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline: +155
- Game Spread: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-110)
- Game Total: 46 Points
Ravens vs. Bengals Predictions
Ravens-Browns Total Under 46 Points (-110)
Full disclosure – I bet this when it opened at 44 points and have lost some confidence given the upward movement.
That said, I don’t agree with the line move.
Primetime unders are 60% dating back to the 2018-19 season, including 25-7 this season.
I also think the market is overreacting to Baltimore’s game against the Browns.
That contest saw 64 combined points, but it included two defensive touchdowns and two 39+ yard scores.
Additionally, the 27-24 Ravens win over Cincinnati in Week 2 looks concerning.
However, a Bengals 81-yard punt return touchdown caused the game to finish over this number.
As a result, I question how the Bengals score on short rest without key receiver Tee Higgins.
When you factor in the short rest and the fact Baltimore is allowing only 14 non-overtime points per game at home, I’ll take the under.
Joe Burrow Under 12.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
What an outstanding sell-high spot on a quarterback who almost never runs.
Burrow has cleared this number in two of his last three games, but those represent his only two successes of the season.
Back in Week 2 against the Ravens, Burrow rushed only once for 5 yards. In another divisional game against the Browns, he rushed only once for -1 yards.
Expand the sample to include Burrow’s record from last season, and bettors will find he’s cleared this number in only eight of 25 regular season games.
Lastly, the Ravens have held six of 10 opposing quarterbacks under this number. As a result, take the under on Burrow’s rushing yards prop.
Mark Andrews Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)
Andrews has dominated the Bengals of late.
He eclipsed this number on the hook in Week 2, his fourth straight clearance of this number against Cincinnati.
It’s also a fantastic buy-low spot on Andrews, who reeled in only two catches against the Browns.
However, Cleveland sits first in pass defense DVOA and defensive DVOA against tight ends, per ftnfantasy.com.
The Bengals are 12th in pass defense DVOA, but they’re simultaneously 30th in DVOA against tight ends.
Although Cincinnati has held five of nine opposing tight ends under this number, two of their last three opponents have cleared it.
As a result, take the over on Andrews’ reception prop so long as it remains at +100 or better.
NFL Betting Odds at BetMGM
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