- The Chiefs are -3 point favorites vs the Ravens
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this game on NBC
The Baltimore Ravens (0-0-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (0-0-0) on Sep. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Ravens vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.
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Ravens vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ravens | +3 -115 | 46 -110 | +125 |
| Chiefs | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 |
Ravens vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Ravens vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Ravens will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.
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Best Ravens Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Ravens players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Justice Hill has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 65% ROI)
- Derrick Henry has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Derrick Henry has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Derrick Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 73% ROI)
- Keaton Mitchell has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 31% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Ravens
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | +650 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | +650 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | +700 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Ravens
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | -115 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | +100 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | +110 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | +140 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Ravens
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman (BAL) | 30.5 -110 | 30.5 -120 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 49.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 59.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 57.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Ravens
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 48.5 -110 | 48.5 -120 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 60.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 20.5 -115 | 20.5 -115 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 64.5 -110 | 64.5 -120 |
| Justice Hill (BAL) | 15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
Ravens Best Bets:
- The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 away games (+8.20 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 41% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+0.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+0.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)
Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Ravens went 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Ravens are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -28.99% ROI
- Ravens are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Ravens are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Chiefs went 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Chiefs are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -100% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Chiefs are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens were undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run offenses last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .424.
The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Ravens were undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 offenses last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .359.
The Ravens were undefeated (6-0) vs top 10 run defenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens
The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .281.
The Chiefs are 4-3 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .269.
The Chiefs were undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .664.
The Chiefs are undefeated (7-0) when playing in warm weather since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .496.
Additional Matchup Notes for Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have run 17.8% offensive plays in the red zone since the 2022 season — best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed their opponent to run 15.1% of plays in the red zone since the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have averaged 0.24 epa per play against a light rush since the 2022 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 0.19 epa per play with a light rush since the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have been successful on 49.6% of plays they have run against a stacked front since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed their opponents to be successful on 49.5% of plays with a stacked front since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Ravens ran successful plays on 46.6% of rush attempts last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs allowed successful plays on 46.3% of rush attempts last season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Ravens threw the ball just 45.9% of the time last season — lowest in NFL. The Chiefs allowed just 5.4 yards per dropback last season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Ravens have averaged 0.14 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 0.15 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2022 season — worst in NFL.
Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats
The Ravens ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 18 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Ravens threw the ball 24% of the time (14 Pass Attempts/58 plays) on 3rd and short last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Ravens had 21 rushes of 20+ yards last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Ravens have run successful plays on 66% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 68% of pass attempts against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 73% of plays against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats
The Ravens defense allowed successful plays on 27% of plays with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Ravens defense allowed -0.14 epa per play in the 1st half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Ravens defense allowed -0.34 epa per play with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Ravens defense has allowed a passer rating of just 43.1 with a heavy rush (47 Pass Attempts) since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 96.6.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed no passing TDs (47 pass attempts) in Week 18 — T-best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 21.9.
The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense allowed scores on 28% of opponent drives last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Chiefs defense allowed just 15.9 points per game to opposing offenses (271 points / 17 games) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 20.7.
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