- The Ravens are a 6.5-point home favorite against the Commanders.
- Lamar Jackson is 21-1 SU against the NFC in his career.
- My Ravens vs. Commanders prediction is to tease the Ravens down to -0.5.
Jayden Daniels looks to guide Washington to a fifth straight win in a trip to Baltimore for Week 6.
Washington is 2-0 SU against the AFC North thus far and has blitzed its last two opponents. Against the Browns and Cardinals, Washington is 2-0 with a +49 point differential.
The Ravens sit at 3-2 before Week 6 after starting the season 0-2. Most recently, Baltimore came from behind to capture a 41-38 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Bet on Ravens vs. Commanders and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 6 Odds: Ravens vs. Commanders
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +6.5 (-105) | 51.5 (-110) | +250 |
| Ravens | -6.5 (-115) | 51.5 (-110) | -300 |
Ravens vs. Commanders Predictions
Because of Washington’s inability to defend the run, my Ravens vs. Commanders prediction is the Ravens (-0.5) as the first leg of a six-point teaser.
There’s no denying both Baltimore and Washington possess brilliant offenses. However, the edge on defense has to go to Baltimore.
Baltimore is 22nd in EPA per play, while Washington is 27th. However, the Ravens own a somewhat redeeming quality: they’re third in both rush EPA per play and success rate.
Washington has yet to show they can stop the run. The Commanders rank 27th in both rush EPA per play and rush success rate allowed.
In Week 6, they face a Ravens team second and fourth in the corresponding offensive metrics.
Also worth noting: the betting public is all over Washington in this game.
As of Wednesday evening, Washington has received 84% of bets to cover the spread and 80% of tickets to win the game outright.
But with Lamar Jackson sitting at 21-1 against the NFC and Baltimore possessing a strong run game, I’ll take the Ravens to earn a fourth straight win.
For the second leg of this teaser, I’ll pair Baltimore with the Denver Broncos (+8.5).
In tandem with Washington’s struggles defending and Baltimore’s fluency with Derrick Henry, my second Ravens vs. Commanders prediction is Henry Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115).
This number is already high for player prop standards. However, I’m not sure it’s high enough.
Baltimore is second in rush EPA per play and fourth in rushing success rate this season. It is also one of only four teams with a rush success rate north of 50%.
Comparatively, the Commanders rank 27th in both rush EPA per play allowed and rushing success rate allowed, per rbsdm.com.
Henry has cleared this number in four straight games against teams with a similar defensive profile to Washington.
Those four opponents average a rush EPA per play ranking of 28.25, with only one (Buffalo) sitting inside the top-25.
As a result, I’ll pay to see Washington’s defense improve and hold Henry under this number for the first time since Week 1.
Ravens vs. Commanders: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 74% | 65% | 88% | 94% |
| Ravens | 26% | 35% | 12% | 6% |
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