- The Ravens are a 6.5-point home favorite against the Steelers.
- The Steelers have won six straight games as underdogs against the Ravens.
- My Ravens vs. Steelers prediction is for Pittsburgh to cover the spread.
With a win on Saturday, the Ravens can tie the Steelers for the lead in the AFC North.
Baltimore, off a Week 14 bye, captured a dominant win over the Giants as 16.5-point market favorites. That vaulted Baltimore to 9-5, a game behind Pittsburgh.
The Steelers suffered a 27-13 loss against the Eagles in Week 15. That proved the first loss since Week 12 for Pittsburgh, which is 7-2 SU over the last nine games.
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NFL Week 16 Odds: Ravens vs. Steelers
Ravens vs. Steelers Prediction
Based on Mike Tomlin’s strong record as a market underdog within the division, my Ravens vs. Steelers prediction is the Steelers Spread (+6.5, -105).
I’m personally waiting to grab this side until clarity emerges about T.J. Watt’s ankle injury. Watt said after Sunday’s game X-rays were negative, and it sounds like he’s going to play.
But Watt’s absence would severely impact Pittsburgh’s ability to exploit Baltimore’s offensive line and contain Lamar Jackson.
Pittsburgh also could return George Pickens for Saturday’s game. That would boost an offense ranking 30th in offensive success rate over the previous two games.
But the crux of this bet is trusting Tomlin as an underdog in a divisional contest.
The Steelers head coach is 66% ATS as a market dog in his career.
Where he excels is against the Bengals, Ravens and Browns. As a market dog against those teams, Tomlin posts a 26-9-2 ATS (74.4%) record.
Perhaps even more impressive is that Tomlin recorded a 22-15 SU record in those divisional contests.
That renders Tomlin the only NFL coach with a winning SU record as a market underdog having played at least 20 games.
When Tomlin gets five or more points in those divisional games, he owns a near-flawless 6-1 ATS record and 4-3 SU record.
Conversely, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has struggled as a mid-size favorite.
Jackson is 4-14 ATS as a market favorite between -7.5 and -3 in divisional contests, including 1-7 over the previous three seasons.
Add in the fact Baltimore is prone to letting teams back into games in the second half, and I’ll back the Steelers so long as their defensive talisman plays on Saturday.
Betting Ravens vs. Steelers: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Ravens vs. Steelers public betting data and insights.
