- The Saints are -5.5 against the Giants.
- Both teams captured victories in Week 14 against the Panthers and Packers.
- New Orleans struggles as favorites, whereas Giants are good underdogs.
Before the action kicks off from New Orleans, I’m set to provide a pair of Saints vs. Giants predictions.
Both teams enter this game fresh off Week 14 wins. New Orleans won and covered as home favorites against the Panthers, while the Giants earned an outright win as home dogs against the Packers.
That leaves both teams third in their respective divisions. However, New Orleans owns the same record as both the Buccaneers and Falcons.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Sunday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest.
Saints vs. Giants Betting Odds
- New Orleans Saints Moneyline: -250
- New York Giants Moneyline: +200
- Game Spread: New Orleans Saints -5.5
- Game Total: 39 Points
Saints vs. Giants Betting Predictions
New York Giants Spread (+5.5) at New Orleans Saints
Congrats to the Saints for their cover against the Panthers.
It doesn’t change the fact they’re still terrible as favorites.
Including Sunday’s result, Derek Carr is 19-37-2 ATS when he’s a favorite. On the 17 occasions a Carr-led side has closed -4 or higher, he’s 4-13 ATS.
Saints head coach Dennis Allen is also terrible – he’s 6-16-1 ATS as a favorite for his career, including 3-5 ATS at -4 or higher.
What really makes me fall in love with the Giants, though, is New Orleans’ inability to defend the run.
Since Week 6, the Saints have held zero teams under 100 rushing yards. Over that span, they’ve allowed 156.5 rushing yards per game, including 191.3 in their last three.
Those poor metrics should allow Saquon Barkley to have a field day and take pressure off Tommy DeVito’s shoulders.
Finally, since 2016-17, there have been 12 instances where a team is coming off a double-digit win while allowing 200 or more rushing yards.
In the next game, those teams are 3-11-1 ATS when they’re favored.
Even if you drop the yardage requirement to 150 rushing yards, those teams are still 10-23-2 ATS in the subsequent game.
Saquon Barkley Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
It’s admittedly a buy-high spot on Barkley, but this Saints run defense is just terrible.
They’re 24th in rush defense DVOA and 21st in adjusted line yards per attempt, according to ftnfantasy.com.
Since Week 6, New Orleans has held one team under 120 rushing yards. Over the last three weeks, they’ve allowed two teams to rush for 200 or more yards.
That renders this an insulting number on Barkley, who has cleared this number in six of 10 games this season and notched 66 or more yards in seven.
Shrink the sample down to four games against sides 20th or worse in rush defense DVOA, and bettors will find Barkley cleared this number three times.
Barring a complete reversal of fortunes from New Orleans, take the over on Barkley Sunday.
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