Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction: NFL Week 17 Odds, Betting Picks

Nick Hennion Dec 25, 2024, 9:09 AM

min read

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin yells from the sidelines during the second half of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

The Steelers are a 2.5-point home underdog against the Chiefs.
The Steelers have won nine straight as home underdogs following a loss.
My Steelers vs. Chiefs prediction is to use the Steelers in a teaser.

To kick off the NFL Christmas slate, the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs.

Pittsburgh returns home after two straight losses to Super Bowl contenders. After losing against the Eagles, the Steelers fell 34-17 to Baltimore in Week 16.

Kansas City earned a second straight win and cover in Week 16. After dispatching the Browns, Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City to a 27-19 win over the Texans on Saturday.

Bet on Steelers vs. Chiefs and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.

NFL Week 17 Odds: Steelers vs. Chiefs

Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction

Based on the Chiefs’ penchant for playing one-score games and Mike Tomlin’s excellent record as a home dog, my Steelers vs. Chiefs prediction is a Steelers Teaser (+8.5).

From an ATS standpoint, this game is so difficult to handicap.

Mahomes has excelled in his career as a short favorite.

When he’s priced between -3 and -0.5, the Texas Tech product is 13-7 ATS, including 6-2 against teams with a win percentage north of 75%.

However, history also suggests this is a good spot to fade Kansas City.

Since 2003, home teams in games 12-16 against a road team with a win percentage north of 85% are 46-19-2 ATS (70.8%), including 27-9-1 when that game occurs outside the division.

Given those conflicting reports, teasing Pittsburgh up through the key numbers feels like the logical compromise.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin excels in such a position when he’s listed as a home underdog.

Tomlin is 20-6-3 ATS as a home dog in his career and a near-flawless 26-3 against a six-point teaser in those positions.

When Tomlin closes at +3 or shorter at home, he’s led the Steelers to a 13-4-3 ATS record and a 17-3 teaser record.

This season, Kansas City has covered -8.5 only three times in 14 victories. Two of those successes came on extended rest, while the third came against a terrible Browns team.

As a result, I question if the Chiefs accomplish that feat on short rest in Pittsburgh against a desperate side.

For a pairing, I’ll take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers down from -7.5 to -1.5 against the Carolina Panthers.