Browns Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Cleveland

As of Jan. 10, the Browns Super Bowl odds are +3300, with an implied probability of 2.9%. Prior to the NFL season, Cleveland was +4000 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess +1400 odds – an implied probability of 6.7% – to win the AFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

In terms of the Super Bowl futures market, there was minimal interest in the Browns, who have started five different quarterbacks this season. 

As of Jan. 5, Cleveland received 3.7% of all bets and 3.4% of the total handle to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

At 14/1, there’s a case to be made the Browns offer decent upside to win the AFC. For my favorite AFC pick, check out my Bills Super Bowl Prediction. 

Cleveland reached the playoffs largely because of their outstanding home record. 

The Browns finished 8-1 straight up at home, with their lone loss coming to the Ravens behind Dorian Thompson-Robinson. 

Their road form, however, is a different story. 

Cleveland finished the 2023-24 regular season 3-4 straight up in meaningful contests. Granted, in Joe Flacco’s lone road start (at Houston), they won 36-22. 

If the Browns can somehow resolve their massive gap in defensive production – they led the league in home points per game but were 31st away from home – they can make a run. 

This season, Cleveland ranked eighth in total DVOA and if the wild-card round goes as I expect, they’ll play the Ravens in the divisional round. 

Given they beat the Ravens in Baltimore, it’s entirely possible they could do it again. 

From there, it’s a likely matchup with either the Chiefs or Bills, both of whom are unreliable favorites. 

For those reasons, the Browns are absolutely worth a flier to win the AFC at 14/1. That said, I’ll be staying away from them to win the Super Bowl.