Lions Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Detroit

As of Jan. 22, the Lions Super Bowl odds are +700, with an implied probability of 12.5%. Prior to the 2024 NFL season, Detroit was +2500 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess +240 effective odds – their moneyline against the San Francisco 49ers, an implied probability of 29.4% – to win the NFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Those prices represent a major uptick for the Lions. Prior to their wild-card round victory, the Lions sat at +2000 and +900 to win the Super Bowl and NFC Championship, respectively.

In terms of the Super Bowl, the Lions weren’t a very popular bet. Detroit received only 7.7% of all tickets (fifth-most) and 6.8% of the handle (seventh-most). 

That said, they’re a very popular bet to win the NFC. At 38.3% of tickets and 37.2% of the handle, the Lions represent the highest handle and bets percentages. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

The Lions had an amazing season, but I can’t back them in either futures market. Instead, check out my 49ers Super Bowl Prediction for a pick. 

Detroit plays amazing on offense, averaging 27.1 points per game, the fifth-best mark in the NFL. 

However, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. At 23.2 points per game allowed, the Lions sit 23rd in the league. 

Although they’re 13th in defensive DVOA, it’s largely a function of their easy schedule. Per ftnfantasy.com, Detroit faced the 11th-easiest set of opposing defenses. 

Plus, dating back to their Week 7 game against the Ravens, the Lions are 27th in EPA per play and 24th in defensive success rate. 

Over that span, they not only lost to Baltimore but fell to the Packers and Cowboys, along with a Justin Fields-led Bears. 

Their lack of defensive prowess means any team is capable of beating Detroit. 

If they can turn it around, their offense should provide a high upside of an NFC Championship, but I question if that happens. 

For that reason, the Lions are a pass for me in the futures market.

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