Dolphins Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Miami

min read
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1), Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) and Miami Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (94) celebrate Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (not shown) scoring a touchdown during an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)
(Doug Murray/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jan 10, 2024, 5:38 PM
  • The Miami Dolphins have +1600 Super Bowl odds.
  • Injuries derailed Miami down the stretch as they dropped four playoff places.
  • As constructed, the Dolphins face an uphill climb in the AFC.

As of Jan. 10, the Dolphins Super Bowl odds are +1600, with an implied probability of 5.9%. Prior to the NFL season, Miami was +3000 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess +750 odds – an implied probability of 11.8% – to win the AFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook

In terms of the Super Bowl futures market, there was minimal interest in the Dolphins from respected bettors.

As of Jan. 5, Miami received 4.7% of all bets compared to only 3.3% of the total handle to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

Maybe the Dolphins would be worth it at a higher number, but these prices offer little value. For my favorite AFC pick, check out my Bills Super Bowl Prediction

Honestly, there’s little preventing Miami from making a run aside from their glaring injury issues. 

Linebackers Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips are out for the season, corner Xavien Howard is banged up and linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel sustained a Week 18 injury. 

That basically leaves Christian Wilkins and Jalen Ramsey as the main defensive presences. 

Had Miami held onto the division title – they were -2000 to win the division on November 28 – I could maybe make a case for them, given their outstanding home offensive numbers. 

But now they have to go on the road, where they’ve struggled this season. 

In four road games against fellow playoff teams – Ravens, Bills, Chiefs and Eagles – the Dolphins averaged only 17.5 points per game and finished 0-4 in those contests. 

Without explosive offensive showings, I question how they disguise their defensive issues, especially in cold weather. 

For his career, Tua Tagovailoa has made only one start when the temperature was 33 degrees or lower. 

Now Miami gets the frigid temperatures of Kansas City in the wild-card round. 

Expect a short stay for the Dolphins in the playoffs. That said, they offer tons of viability in next year’s futures market.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.