Steelers Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Pittsburgh

min read
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) celebrates after a touchdown during an NFL football game, Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023, in Pittsburgh, PA.
(Matt Durisko/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jan 10, 2024, 5:55 PM
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have +12500 Super Bowl odds.
  • Pittsburgh has struggled without T.J. Watt, who was injured in Week 18.
  • Is the Steelers offense good, or have they played bad defenses?

As of Jan. 10, the Steelers Super Bowl odds are +12500, with an implied probability of 0.8%. Prior to the NFL season, Pittsburgh was +5000 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess +5000 odds – an implied probability of 1.9% – to win the AFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook

In terms of the Super Bowl futures market, Pittsburgh drew slight interest, but it was nothing major. 

As of Jan. 5, the Steelers have received 2.5% of all bets compared to only 2.3% of the total handle to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

Without T.J. Watt, it’s hard to see the Steelers making a run. 

As a result, I’m staying away from both futures markets. For my favorite AFC pick, check out my Bills Super Bowl Prediction

Since drafting Watt, the Steelers have played markedly differently with him in the lineup. Without him, though, they’re 1-10 straight up and 4-6-1 ATS against the closing number. 

In one of those games, they played the Bills in Buffalo, the exact same matchup they’ll have for the wild-card round. 

That 2022 Week 5 game saw the Bills earn a 38-3 home win against the Steelers, who closed as 14-point underdogs for the contest. 

Plus, it’s my opinion too much is being made of the Pittsburgh offense right now. 

Although the Steelers have looked better with Mason Rudolph, their opponents – Seahawks, Bengals and a rotated Ravens team – leave much to be desired. 

In games this season against teams 10th or better in defensive DVOA, Pittsburgh is 3-4 straight up. 

As a result, I think it’ll be one-and-done for the Steelers in this year’s playoffs, hence the high price.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.