- The Texans are -2.5 against the Colts in Week 1.
- Last season, both road teams captured outright victories in two meetings.
- I predict the Indianapolis Colts will claim an outright win as home underdogs.
It’s a rematch of the Week 18 meeting last year that earned Houston the AFC South title. Below, bettors can find my Texans vs. Colts prediction.
Houston went from worst in the division two years ago to first last season. After earning a playoff win and adding Stefon Diggs, they’re amongst the favorites in the Super Bowl odds.
Considering Indianapolis lost Anthony Richardson after only four games, a 9-8 season last year could be considered a success. With Richardson, they beat Houston by 11 points.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my prediction for this Week 1 matchup.
Colts vs. Texans Odds, Week 1
- Houston Texans Moneyline: -145
- Indianapolis Colts Moneyline: +120
- Game Spread: Houston Texans -2.5
- Game Over/Under: 48.5 Points (-115/-105)
Colts vs. Texans Prediction: Moneyline
I predict the Indianapolis Colts win outright (+120) as home dogs against the Houston Texans.
As noted earlier, these teams met in Week 18 last year with the divisional title on the line.
Houston won the game, but Indianapolis was right on the doorstep of Houston’s endzone late in the fourth quarter. However, a dropped screen pass on fourth down doomed Indy.
That has to linger with the Colts, who will return quarterback Anthony Richardson from injury. When Richardson played against the Texans in Week 2 last year, they won 31-20 on the road.
Plus, divisional underdogs tend to do well early in the season.
Since the 2005-06 regular season, divisional underdogs are 56.3% ATS in the month of September, including 56.6% as home dogs.
From a moneyline standpoint, short divisional dogs tend to perform well when the last game finished within a score.
Sample all games since 2005-06 in which the previous head-to-head result for the dog was between -8 and +8, and bettors will find those dogs are 43-37 SU.
That system also assumes teams are sitting between -105 and +150 on the moneyline. Irrespective of price, those dogs are 40.6% SU for a 9.9% ROI.
Colts vs. Texans Prediction: Nico Collins Receiving Yards
My prediction for Colts vs. Texans is Nico Collins Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-120).
Collins could see a decreased target share thanks to Stefon Diggs’ arrival. However, his success against Indy last season is too difficult to ignore.
Collins cleared 100 yards in both meetings against the Colts, including nine catches for 195 yards in Week 18.
Irrespective of opponent, Collins cleared this number in eight games last year, including eight of 15 when playing more than 60% of snaps.
The Colts have done nothing to address their weak pass defense. Last year, they ranked 21st in PFF’s coverage grades and posted two of their three worst coverage grades against Houston.
Plus, Indianapolis’ top corner — Kenny Moore II — primarily operates in the slot. Of the Colts’ three corners, Moore is the only one to post a coverage grade north of 70.
The issue? Collins only ran 20% of routes last season from the slot. That will give him a favorable matchup against either JuJu Brents (64.5 grade) or Jaylon Jones (55.8 grade).
Given Collins rated out as the third-best receiver last year in PFF’s grade, expect a strong showing on Sunday.
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